Voter Fraud in the US is a Statistical Myth
The comment from Joe Conservative, frequent blogger and a regular reader of Progressive Eruptions, found elsewhere, was jarring…
“I’m convinced” Joe Conservative said, “that for Democrats, fraud is a feature, and not a bug.”
That’s a big statement, but we frequently hear a version of it, alleging frequent voter fraud among Democrats, from political conservatives supporting President Trump and his MAGA movement.
Let's unpack some facts.
The right leaning Heritage Foundation gives us nine buckets of potential voter fraud.
- Impersonation fraud at the polls… saying you are someone you are not.
- False registrations… voting under a false, or someone else’s name.
- Duplicate voting… registering in multiple locations and/or voting as such.
- Fraudulent use of absentee ballots… requesting absentee ballots and voting in another person’s name.
- Buying votes… paying voters to vote in a specific way or for a specific candidate.
- Illegal “assistance” at the polls… intimidating or encouraging people to vote a specific way while “assisting” them.
- Ineligible voting… voting by people who are ineligible to vote or not US citizens.
- Altering the vote count… changing the vote count at a precinct or ballot counting site.
- Ballot petition fraud… forging the signatures of other voters to either vote or qualify an initiative for a general election ballot.
The Heritage Foundation has a database of voter fraud convictions and occurrences. Heritage has logged a total of 1576 proven cases of voter fraud in the United States. If we had every single one of those violations in the elections last year, they would represent a fraud rate of .00001. But we did not. In fact the 1576 proven cases of voter fraud the right leaning Heritage Foundation has logged represents the total of cases since 1982.
Here is a recap of some of the database results Heritage has found in over 50 years of cases…
- 10 cases of altering the vote count, none in the 2020 election.
- 360 cases of voter registration fraud, 7 in the 2020 election.
- Less than 200 cases of duplicate voting, 1 in the 2020 election.
- Less than 400 cases of ineligible voting, 6 in 2020.
The number of cases Heritage cites is so low that statisticians call it statistically insignificant. This means Heritage has no data to support the view of Joe Conservative or any other conservative asserting frequent or election changing voter fraud in the United States.
Statistically none.
And yet, this myth of voter fraud in the US remains and runs deep among those who cannot accept that Joe Biden won the presidency in 2020 in an election that the Trump Administration itself called, and the Heritage Foundation numbers support, the most secure election in US history.
But these results are not just limited to the Heritage Foundation. Noted election fraud believer Kris Kobach of Kansas was the Vice Chair of the Voter Fraud Commission in the first Trump Administration. His commission, like the Heritage Foundation, was also unable to find any significant voter fraud happening in the US.
Likewise, despite frequent assertions of fraud after the 2020 election from conservatives, we have mostly been left with a quote from Rudy Giuliani in an Arizona courtroom. Here’s what he said in the courtroom, where open lies get you disbarred, far away from the cameras and microphones outside the courthouse.
“We’ve got lots of theories. We just don’t have the evidence.”
In fact, Giuliani was ultimately disbarred for repeatedly making false and misleading statements, as many partisans still do, claiming election fraud in the 2020 elections.
Evidence is the coin of the realm in a courtroom. It used to be the gold standard when making political points. No more.
Statements alleging unproven voter fraud, stolen elections and outright political chicanery by Democrats and others have repeatedly been shown to be false. The continued use of these unfounded allegations, while legally protected under the First Amendment, has no other function other than to sow discord in our country as we near our 250th birthday.
It is incumbent on those alleging and supporting the myth of voter fraud to come clean. For the good of America they either need to show the data which supports their view, that substantial voter fraud exists at a level that can change elections.
Or be honest and admit it doesn’t exist and that they were wrong.
Because anything else will continue to tear at the fabric of our nation.
Thanks for all the research Dave!
ReplyDeleteYou bet Mike...
DeleteAnd Mike... thanks for weekly jokes!
DeleteIt will be interesting to read responses of the various MAGAts claiming fake numbers or some other unsubstantiated malarkey.
ReplyDeleteThey're all following the repeat a lie often enough it eventually becomes "truth" mantra. And they'll continue repeating in preparation for 2028.
Les, you know me... quibble all you want with the conclusions, even the numbers, just bring some contrary evidence from reputable places.
DeleteDave, when you retire from mission work, have you considered law school?
ReplyDeleteBB... My brother in law is a lawyer and I've got lots of friends who are lawyers. In our style of mission work, I have an entire team of current and retired lawyers doing eye care work and prescribing classes. Not reading glasses mind you, real glasses. Those guys are way smarter than me and used to thinking about and solving real problems. That's why they're so good at what they do.
DeleteI'm not that sharp. But thanks!
Thanks for acknowledging there is fraud just not a lot. I take it you have never lived in Chicago. Just because something is not proven significant, in your eyes, does not mean it does not exist.
ReplyDeleteHave you ever heard of the phrase, "statistically insignificant?" That applies to voter fraud. Also, as you know, the unemployment rate has never been zero in my lifetime. When it's down to 3 percent or less, the US considers that excellent, even though 3 percent of the US population is unemployed. That's over 10 million Americans.
DeleteSee this map from The Heritage Foundation to see states where voter fraud was found.
Sorry Skud... that's like saying just because we can't prove you did not beat the "H E double toothpicks" out of your wife, "does not mean it does not exist."
DeleteDo some math amigo... Take all of the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, home of Trumps Project 2025 plan, cases of actual voter fraud for the 2020 election. Triple them. Divide that number by 150 million voters.
Come back here with that number and then argue the statistics. Sorry Skud, it's math, it's science, it's statistics. Statistically insignificant is a term that means zip, nil, nada. Not enough to be noticeable. It's the gold standard for a post cancer diagnosis.
Every system ever built has some anomalies. Enough to kill it? Mostly no. We've been doing these elections for centuries. America has the best system and the most secure election in the entire world.
Again, look at the Heritage numbers. less that 2000 examples of fraud, or really attempted fraud, since 1982. And if you count just the actual examples of actual voter fraud, or changed votes, what the MAGA crowd alleges happens when GOP candidates lose, the number is even less.
You struggle with facts with which you do not agree. I get that. The world is changing and we're all getting older, yearning for the "good old days." We all see the struggle every day in our fellow Americans who to this day, deny cops got "savagely beaten" on J6 and believe those rioters are innocent.
We really do get it, or at least I do.
It is hard to admit being wrong when what you believe, or want to believe has no facts to back it up, no evidence and worse, us lefties use "lawfare" or even better, "evidencefare" to back up our claims. Something you've yet to ever do here.
But that's America.
Built on the rule of law, facts and evidence. And that evidence is central to our Constitutional system, built on years of fine tuning since the day the Magna Carta was written 1215.
The facts of "voter fraud" in the US are evident. There is no amount of voter fraud that has been found to change a single federal election. None. So since I know you won't do your math homework, riddle us this...
Are MAGA people sure of election voter fraud delusional, willfully wrong, or lying with their claims? Are you?
Because concerned minds want to know.
Thanks Dave. I'm not going to do the research but I'd love to see a breakdown of which party benefited from the miniscule number of proven fraud cases. I've got a hunch.
ReplyDeleteIt's also been my experience that presented with well researched facts, like what you presented, many on the Right will see it as evidence of a deeper and well hidden conspiracy. People like Joe Con? We'll see.
I'll remind our Philosopher King of the meaning of philosophy,
the study of the fundamental nature of knowledge, reality, and existence, especially when considered as an academic discipline.
Here's a map that shows that breakdown, Craig.
DeleteCraig... Shaw posted the map, draw your conclusions. Here's what again, the HFoundation has found. But here's another kernal you find if you do that deep dive into their numbers and cases...
DeleteThe majority of stolen election attempts, actual viter fraud and double voting, has come from the GOP side. Further, even GOP dominated state Supreme Courts in both North Carolina and Florida have struck down laws their own GOP politicians passed because they found those laws both "racially based" and "unconstitutional".
Sure, as Skud notes, there are small examples of voter fraud, or again, attempted voter fraud, in every election. But as have learned from the actual evidence, as opposed to our "gut" and unreliable "instincts", is that it comes mostly from the folks who want to end that fraud, the GOP and MAGA folks.
Philosophy isn't an 'Academic Discipline'. It's a lifetime Praxis. To treat it as an "academic discipline" is to commit/ condemn it to Jacques Lacan's "University Discourse". And the "project" of every true philosopher since Nietzsche has been to ensure that Academia never recaptures it. Just as Deleuze and Guattari have broken the stranglehold on psychiatry/ psychoanalysis of structuralism.
DeleteIn other words, I'm not only a philosopher, but I'm also an anti-philosopher. I ask questions, I don't provide answers.
And today's important question is, "how reliable are our voting systems, really?" And even more importantly, "How do we know?"
Dave, you keep referring to the 2020 election when there has been a presidential election since which invalidates and statical anomalies for previous election. Statically insignificant does not mean zero it just means not enough to change any result. Trumpets are bat shit crazy just like the media who lied about the competence of Biden. They just want to see different results so they lie.
DeleteMs. Shaw, 3% unemployment is considered full employment because 3% will never work. One of the reasons unemployment numbers are misleading is they don’t take into account the participation rate which is an important number that few refer to.
every true philosopher
DeleteTrue, according to you. Nietzsche was a tenured prof at Basel in Switzerland but, whatever.
I ask questions, I don't provide answers.
Bullshit. Every time you link or copy/paste you're attempting to tag a topic or person with some philosophical label as if it's objective truth. Whether or not it fits, you try to shoehorn it. You can hide behind your Youtube videos but we see you.
"how reliable are our voting systems, really?" And even more importantly, "How do we know?"
I guess we can't 'know'. We can research, collect data, rely on the best available evidence to make a determination. That determination is falsifiable. It's incumbent on anyone who claims fraud large enough to swing an election to present the evidence that would falsify the determination. No one's done it yet.
Yeah, Nietzsche WAS a "philology" professor BEFORE he quit and became a philosopher.
Deletefrom an AI summary (Google) Friedrich Nietzsche left academia in 1879, resigning his position as a professor of classical philology at the University of Basel. He did so due to a combination of factors, including his poor health, disillusionment with the academic system, and a growing desire to pursue his philosophical writing independentl
I guess we can't 'know'. We can research, collect data, rely on the best available evidence to make a determination. That determination is falsifiable. It's incumbent on anyone who claims fraud large enough to swing an election to present the evidence that would falsify the determination. No one's done it yet.
Delete...because if you write enough FOIA requests, the government will have to reveal the hidden proof. BWAH!
In other words, you got nuthin.
DeleteBy design.
DeleteSays Thirsty, "I meant to step on that rake."
DeleteWith his concrete absence of evidence, Skud might be able to get rewarded.
ReplyDeleteFor example - "
A week after the 2020 election, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick announced that he was offering up to $1 million – paid from his campaign account – “to incentivize, encourage and reward people to come forward and report voter fraud.”
Nearly a year later, Patrick, a Republican, has paid out his first reward: $25,000 to a Democrat in Pennsylvania, who reported a man for voting twice.
Eric Frank, a poll worker, received the money earlier this month for his part in reporting Ralph Holloway Thurman, a Republican who after voting once, attempted to vote a second time as his son, as first reported by the Dallas Morning News"
And there you have it BB... despite all the surety, all the rewards offered, and there have been many, all the accusations, we're left with Giuliani's statement...
Delete“We’ve got lots of theories. We just don’t have the evidence.”
From the MAGAts... crickets.
ReplyDeleteSO why do the voter IDs for 30.6% of all Wisconsin voters in the Wisconsin voter database end in "0" Dave?
ReplyDeleteIn a "shocking" revelation very little fraud is ever discovered in governmental systems that are never completely audited by external/ independent auditors. Hence all the "DoGE" surprises.
ps - And "censoring" criticism of voting practices is hardly the best way to instill confidence in the integrity of the voting system. Integrity's the very CORE VALUE that every believer in democracy should aspire to.
joe, you have a lot to unpack, but I'll try...
DeleteThe Wisconsin Voter Database? I don't know, but under the system we have, from the US Constitution, that's their problem. Just like voter ID, it's a state issue.
Now in reality, I'd love to have a one size fits all Federal Voter ID, much like what every country that requires ID to vote uses. And I think the Dems would support it. Even my lefty friends.
But the GOP will not support a federal ID. Why? IDK. But it would solve the problem the GOP thinks exists.
We've had audits of the system, Arizona is a good example, and they've found no problems. And the Feds, in the Trump admin, did audit the counting systems, found no problems, and pronounced our elections fine.
But I know you disagree. Not because you have evidence mind you, but because your guy lost.
And I'm not censoring anything. Say all you want. But evidence shows the election was rigged crowd is trying to solve a problem that does not exist.
Maybe you could tell us what you need to see to have trust in the system and when your distrust first became evident. Was their fraud against the GOP in 2016 when Trump beat Hillary? In 2000 when Bush beat Gore? 2024?
Or only in years when the Dems won?
Aren't those fair questions?
Is it still a "state" issue? Or is it now a "National Security State" issue... all that "foreign influence" you see, along with with all those right wing domestic terrorists that the election systems need protection from to ensure a continuity of governance. You know, cancel elections in Romania, and bar candidates from running like in Iran's "Guardianship of the Jurists" theocracy. We can't have the "wrong people" like Marie le Pen getting elected, ya know! Or the German AfD? G_d forbid someone should form a Government with THEM!
Deletebtw - Objections to the 2020 electors were precluded by the J6 events. When a new session of Congress began after the interruption, the question became moot. Funny how Parliamentary Maneuvers were used to circumvent the established electoral processes on that day, huh?
btw2 - Have they arrested the DNC/RNC bomber yet? Or is the cell tower data still "unusable"?
And I don't trust any of the election results anymore. The "UniParty" remains in power no matter "who" (D/R) is proclaimed the winner. Trump may own the Executive Branch for now (despite all the Deep Staters in it). But the UniParty controls the other 2 branches.
DeleteAha. FJ, Joe Con, Thirsty is Q.
DeleteNot Q. Q's an Eastern European poster at my blog. I think he's either from Western Ukraine or Eastern Poland.
DeleteWhen dishonest people (rRump, musk) look for anything they will find exactly what their whittle dishonest minds are looking for.
ReplyDeleteOur election are fair and the minuscule amount of fraud yields now difference in outcome.
But for the MAGAts it makes no difference. They believe what they believe. Factual or NOT.
Wi voted 73.3 % turnout in 2025 presidential election. Perusing JC's odd find,
ReplyDelete37% of voters had a zero after their name - all the rest had 7.7 all down the row. If we follow Paquette, turn out should have been 146.6%. Gerrymandering there is at its worst - " Indeed, Wisconsin’s Republican gerrymander is so aggressive that it is practically impossible for Democrats to gain control of the state legislature. In 2018, for example, Democratic state assembly candidates received 54 percent of the popular vote in Wisconsin, but Republicans still won 63 of the assembly’s 99 seats — just three seats short of the two-thirds supermajority Republicans would need to override a gubernatorial veto." Even the GOP SCOTUS found it blatantly illegal and Musk pouring $22 million into their last election has pushed the state from purple to blue. Making an Empire out of a 250 year old democracy is quite a 100 day chore, eh?
Upon trying to find some independent analysis of Joe C's algorithm article, I found this... certain to be debunked by the evidence free folks continuing to claim voter fraud in Wisconsin, to the detriment of our country.
ReplyDelete[A]168-page audit by the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Audit Bureau, initially ordered by the GOP-controlled Legislature in February, was released Friday [October 22, 2021] morning. It found the Wisconsin Elections Commission didn’t follow some state laws in 2020, including things like failing to get electronic voter registration signatures from transportation officials, but that there weren’t widespread instances of people committing voter fraud or officials’ actions affecting large numbers of votes.
Note that this report was ordered by the GOP Legislature, A GOP group that had been cited by their own judges as acting "illegally" to win election. For the intellectually challenged, that means the group that ordered this report is by no means "in the tank" for the Dems.
BTW Joe C... one article on a right wing news site by a man famous on evidence based fact checking sites for his "pants on fire", ahem, misrepresentations, is not evidence.
It's opinion. It's easily proved wrong. It's false. It's not factual. It is not evidence of any actual voter fraud.
A final BTW, think of it as a BBTW... I completely accepted in the original post your First Amendment right to say whatever you want. Maybe you missed it. But I have, like anyone else, no responsibility to believe lies, unprovable statements or accepts "facts" without evidence.
Pushback is not censorship.
Is any of the "evidence" open to general inspection? Nope, just to the "selected few". Gyges keeps his perpetual cloak over all systems and date. I think it's time to count the votes on the campus martius again. Line up and face each other, legions! We'll see who holds the longer lines.
DeleteFinal thoughts... None, not a single one of our conservative friends has offered anything up in rebuttal of my thesis except for a raving past his prime clown who writes the "Israpundit" commenting on one state, Wisconsin. A pundit with such a prodigious mind he has found a whole new conspiracy theory to explain why Trump lost that state in 2020.
ReplyDeleteBut the facts say otherwise.
-FJ at least trashes the whole lot, and believe me, I get that frustration. But it has nothing to do with whether or not there was actual voter fraud in the 2020 election. Something no one to date has actually proven. No one.
There really are, in the words of Mayor Rudy, lots of theories. But also, as he says, no evidence.
Either all the courts that have found no evidence, all the GOP Sec's of State who declared their elections safe, secure and accurate, all the Dem Sec's of State as well and even the Trump Administration itself are lying and wrong, or Joe C and other MAGA election denialists, like chicken little, are the only honorable and truthful people in the US.
More likely though, as logic, statistics, common sense and more shows... there is statistically no voter fraud in the United States of America. And certainly none at the level to actually sway a presidential election.
The simple facts are as such...
Trump is a deeply polarizing man, candidate and president. He has legions of supporters and legions of detractors. He's 2-1 in his three plate appearances. Not as good FDR or Ike, but not bad. But there is no credible evidence to show the election of 2020, despite numerous protestations by his supporters to the contrary, was stolen.
Or anything other than what the Trump Admin itself claimed, the "most secure election in US history.".
...so they say. I guess ya gotta "Trust 'em"! And Trust is short supply.
Delete