Paul Revere by Cyrus Dallin, North End, Boston

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Friday, March 21, 2008

GOOD NEWS FOR DEMOCRATS


Fewer Voters Identify as Republicans

Democrats Now Have the Advantage in "Swing" States
March 20, 2008


The balance of party identification in the American electorate now favors the Democratic Party by a decidedly larger margin than in either of the two previous presidential election cycles.

In 5,566 interviews with registered voters conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press during the first two months of 2008, 36% identify themselves as Democrats, and just 27% as Republicans.

The share of voters who call themselves Republicans has declined by six points since 2004, and represents, on an annualized basis, the lowest percentage of self-identified Republican voters in 16 years of polling by the Center.

The Democratic Party has also built a substantial edge among independent voters. Of the 37% who claim no party identification, 15% lean Democratic, 10% lean Republican, and 12% have no leaning either way.

By comparison, in 2004 about equal numbers of independents leaned toward both parties. When "leaners" are combined with partisans, however, the Democratic Party now holds a 14-point advantage among voters nationwide (51% Dem/lean-Dem to 37% Rep/lean-Rep), up from a three-point advantage four years ago.

Despite these trends, the proportion of voters who identify with the Democratic Party outright has not increased in recent years. Currently, 36% say they think of themselves as a Democrat, virtually unchanged from 2004 (35%) and 2000 (35%). Instead, as the proportion of self-identified Republicans has decreased, the percentage of independents has grown substantially, from 32% in 2004 to 37% today.

The rest of the analysis is here.
After almost 8 years of an incompetent Republican administration, the American people are looking elsewhere for leadership.
Meanwhile, Bush's approval ratings are at an all time low:

With far more Americans identifying themselves as Democrats than Republicans, President Bush’s job rating has hit a new low, according to the latest FOX News poll.
Three in 10 Americans (30 percent) now approve of the job Bush is doing as the nation’s leader, with 6 in 10 disapproving.
While disapproval of the president has been higher (for example, 61 percent in both July and March of 2007), his approval rating has never sunk this low before.
Majorities in every major sub-group except Republicans, conservatives and born-again Christians give a negative rating to Bush’s performance in the White House. Nearly two-thirds of Republicans (65 percent) approve of Bush.
Click here for full results. (pdf)
This bad news for Bush comes at a time when the gap between those identifying themselves as Democrats and those identifying as Republicans has reached 13 percentage points (43 percent versus 30 percent), which is the largest difference ever measured in a FOX News poll.
Bush has been a disaster for the Republican party. At one point, his administration led all three branches of government and a majority of Americans supported him.
Instead of laying out a vision for America, domestically and internationally, and staying in Afghanistan to fight the people who attacked us on September 11, he dragged this country into a catastrophic war in Iraq, and the only economic feather in his cap is his lowering of the tax rate on wealthy people.
The Republicans have only themselves to blame for marching behind this failed presidency and making excuses for a man who has squandered the good will and loyalty Americans had for him at the beginning of his term.

2 comments:

Patrick M said...

I think I can speak for conservatives on this one, as I am barely a Republican at this point:

The reason that the GOP numbers have declined is because the party has drifted too far toward big government. Both Bush, and his enablers in the GOP congress began growing the shit out of the government in almost liberal style. While they still kept to many conservative policies, including across-the-board tax cuts (of which even I benefited), this was not matched by concurrent spending cuts. Even if you don't count wartime related spending, there is still a significant increase in spending and programs.

Second, while many disenfranchised conservatives are still supportive of the war in principle, the period where no progress in Iraq has frustrated us. This is a more universal problem in America that, when we don't feel threatened, we tend to shy away from the military. To those who aren't against the war, this war is being perceived my many as a war that does little to improve our safety.

With these two factors, the GOP has lost much of its focus and strength, which it had during Reagan, regained in 1994, and should have wielded fully at the beginning of 2001. However, with the big government conservatism, AKA Conservatism Lite, and the divisions that became 60's-ish a couple of years into the war, the party is back to the minority party, and may be completely returned to minority status by next year.

Unless, of course, they listen to me.

Shaw Kenawe said...

Well, damn it, Patrick! They should listen to you!