No cliffhanger, more like an Obama landslide
July 28, 2008
Sydney Morning Herald
July 28, 2008
Sydney Morning Herald
The US media stand accused of distorted election coverage
WASHINGTON-Anne Davies
Luckily for the Republican nominee John McCain Europeans can't vote in the November US presidential election - just 100 days away. If they could it would be a landslide for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama.
Nevertheless Senator McCain has reason to be worried - very worried. Last week three leading political scientists declared the US media's presentation of the election as a toss-up as a "myth".
Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, and Larry Sabato, professor of politics at University of Virginia, accused the media of flogging a dead horse in trying to portray the presidential race as a cliffhanger.
Alan Abramowitz, a professor of political science at Emory University, Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, and Larry Sabato, professor of politics at University of Virginia, accused the media of flogging a dead horse in trying to portray the presidential race as a cliffhanger.
It was a particularly bold call for Professor Sabato, who has previously cautioned about Senator Obama's claims that he can redraw the political map in America. "While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain's prospects could improve over the next 3½ months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed - historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months - point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic Party victory in November," the three men wrote in Sabato's Crystal Ball newsletter.
"Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain's favour, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up."
The trio reviewed the national tracking polls and found that Senator Obama has led Senator McCain in every national poll in the past two months, except for twice early on when they tied.
Senator Obama's margin has been in the 4-6 point range, in contrast to the polls in the election run-ups in 2000 and 2004 which showed much more variation over time, they said.
The trio reviewed the national tracking polls and found that Senator Obama has led Senator McCain in every national poll in the past two months, except for twice early on when they tied.
Senator Obama's margin has been in the 4-6 point range, in contrast to the polls in the election run-ups in 2000 and 2004 which showed much more variation over time, they said.
The state-by-state polls have also consistently given Senator Obama an advantage.
"Obama is leading in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 along with six states carried by George Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Colorado. A seventh Bush state, Virginia, is tied," they wrote.
But there are other worrying signs for Senator McCain.
A Fox News Poll found that 51 per cent of Americans think Senator Obama will win. Only 27 per cent pick Senator McCain (from 32 per cent last month).
A Fox News Poll found that 51 per cent of Americans think Senator Obama will win. Only 27 per cent pick Senator McCain (from 32 per cent last month).
2 comments:
The media hates the idea of a race that might be a blowout. They love to tweak with the process to suit their ratings.
Good point Shaw, I wanted to address this myself but there is no need since you have done so. I wish more of the public would look beyond what the MSM is showing them to see it benefits the media to keep the intensity of the race going because if Republicans thought they were going to lose, they would probably become disinterested and maybe not even turn out on the day.
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