Paul Revere by Cyrus Dallin, North End, Boston

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Tuesday, July 18, 2023

This is for our friend, skudrunner...

 

who frequently comments here and claims President Biden is incompetent and his administration has accomplished nothing for Americans:



“The econ­omy is gen­er­at­ing solid growth and con­tin­u­ing em­ploy­ment gains. Infla­tion has dropped to 3%-4%. The US is out­per­form­ing al­most all the world’s ma­jor economies." --The Wall Street Journal



With the American Rescue Plan’s two-year anniversary now behind us, this blog post revisits the economic impact of pandemic response policies of the Biden Administration. 

The economic recovery from the pandemic in the United States has been historic relative to prior episodes with employment recovering to pre-crisis levels much faster than after recent recessions. And while a counterfactual recovery is impossible to observe, data suggests that the actions taken by the Biden Administration meaningfully contributed to the pace of recovery and strength of the labor market. 

One way to put this rebound in context is relative to recoveries in other advanced economies. Acknowledging that other advanced economies faced different economic shocks—notably, our European partners were more adversely affected by Russia’s war against Ukraine—the evidence shows that the U.S. economic recovery has been quite strong. 


  • The size of the U.S economy is now over 5 percent above its 2019 level 
  • Core inflation in the United States is now lower than in many major advanced economies 
  • The U.S. labor market recovery has been exceptionally strong 


 U.S. ECONOMIC RECOVERY FASTEST AMONG COMPARABLE ADVANCED ECONOMIES

16 comments:

Les Carpenter said...

Impressive indeed.

Shaw Kenawe said...

Our neighbors to the north:

"OTTAWA, July 18 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate dropped more than expected in June to 2.8%, a 27-month low, though food prices remain elevated, Statistics Canada data showed on Tuesday.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast inflation to drop to 3.0% from 3.4% in May. Month-over-month, the consumer price index was up 0.1%, also lower than forecast of a 0.3% gain.

June's reading, which benefited from a comparison to the four-decade high inflation last June, means the annual rate is within the Bank of Canada's 1% to 3% control range for the first time since March 2021."


end

Shaw Kenawe said...

Canada’s inflation rate dropped and cooled to 2.8% in June, but groceries are still at an all time high between 11-17%, it’s corporate GREED.

The corporatists can blame it on the national government both in Canada and the US.

It's. The. Greed.

The Christmas Tree Shops have been in business in New England for over 40 years, and it is now closing down its operations. I visited a shop while in Orleans, Cape Cod, Mass., a week ago.

The signs in the shop said "Everything Must Go! 50 to 80% OFF! Everything!"

I picked up a few items, and thought the prices weren't so hot, in fact, the prices on the few items I looked at seemed a bit high for a "going out of business" sale: sweatshirts, planter pots, even some food items.

I picked up a box of crackers that had a price tag of $5.99 on it, which seemed high, even higher than at the grocery store, and I thought that was strange. I noticed the price sticker had something under it, so I peeled the top sticker away, and found another price sticker on the box of crackers, and it was priced at $3.99! I brought it to the checkout and asked why would they put a higher price on something that was supposed to be a "going out of business sale?"

The checkout person had no explanation.

I do.

Greed. Corporate greed! And what the Christmas Tree Shop did is probably illegal.

Dave Miller said...

As for our economy, the numbers that seems to matter to the average American seem pretty good. Inflation is down, unemployment is down, oil prices are down. But, while the deficit is down by a small amount, it remains too high to sustain. That's probably trouble on the horizon for us.

But over all for the Biden Admin so far, just by the numbers, it's got to rate at least a B+... regardless of how people feel.

Full energy independence at highest level in 70 years according to Forbes...

Current inflation... 3%, Unemployment... under 4%

Price of crude oil... mostly down from recent peaks

Current National Debt to GDP... 123%

skudrunner said...

Ms. Shaw, We differ in our outlook on success. The economic recovery has been historic indeed but so was the shutdown of our economy for little reason. What it did show was the government can make people march in step if the threats are there. Now RFK jr is excoriated because he didn't line up and follow the government mandated shots. I got shot but have no issue with those who didn't, I just didn't associate with them for a year.

Core inflation is now 3% but prices are at historic highs from food, housing, transportation so inflation YOY is just one of the measures. The middle class and the poor are being punished while the rich are doing fine. Give a tax incentive to the rich who buy electric cars is another buy my vote plan. Hopefully we will get leadership that takes a broad approach instead of everything is climate. Not everyone can or should own a electric car but that is all the administration is focused on. Hybrids are not even mentioned but make a lot of sense.

The US labor market is strong but the participation rate is still low. The vote buying student loan payoff is aimed at the upper class and does nothing for the workers and is a cost for the taxpayer with no benefit.

The withdrawal from Afghanistan and the abandonment of the people there is a defining moment in his administration. Regardless of what he accomplishes he should be judged by that event. It showed other countries that America is not a country to trust. Why is it that we face additional hostilities from china, iran, NKO, russia and now canada is attacking us with smoke. This is not because they have a great deal of respect for our leadership but they see us vulnerable and unwilling to support them. What happened to unite the country joey. Crime in cities is at historic highs, illegals crossing into the country are at historic highs, deaths by drugs are at historic highs, homelessness is at historic highs. Yep he is doing a great job.

So the little Christmas tree shop raising prices is corporate greed or maybe the minimum wadge of $15 so you can place some blame on saint joey.

Les Carpenter said...

To greed i would add ignorance. They always seem allied.

Dave Miller said...

No Skud... RFK is excoriated because he's a bigot and anti semite.

The remarks he made would never, never had been uttered by his father.

Dave Miller said...

Skud, you're incoherent in your understanding of policy as it relates to mostly Dems...

The Dems pushed to forgive student loan debt, effectively a tax cut that would go directly into the economy as young ppl would have more $$$ to buy houses, cars, etc. But the GOP and ppl like you opposed it, instead favoring tax breaks for business owners, rich folks, etc., in the mistaken belief that they'd invest those tax cuts.

BUT THEY DON'T. They use it for stock buy backs and to pad their savings accounts.

On your "historic highs" rants, let's do this. Since you refuse to acknowledge stats and data that doesn't support your views, do us this favor, or shut about it...

1. Provide links and data that show illegal border crossings, not apprehensions, are at historic highs.

2. Provide links and data that show crime in cities is at historic highs.

Both of these, because you cite them frequently, should be at your fingertips. Show please, show us where we're wrong.

It's as simple as that. I'm expected to bring receipts at Silver's blog, so if you want to spout stuff, why should we expect less here?

We'll wait, because failure eliminates your credibility.

Howard Brazee said...

What does reality have to do with how people want to vote?

Dave Miller said...

BTW Skud... I'll save you some time looking for some other numbers...

Here are the most recent homelessness numbers we have...

In 2022, there were about 582,462 homeless people living in the United States, compared to 580,466 in 2020. So, the numbers are up a little under, as you derisively call him, Joey.

However, those are not historically high. In 2007, under Pres GW Bush, those numbers were at almost 650,000.

So your statement on historic homelessness is either wrong, or you are lying.

Please let us know.

Shaw Kenawe said...

skud: "Now RFK jr is excoriated because he didn't line up and follow the government mandated shots."

NO! RFK, Jr., is being strongly criticized because he spreads disinformation about vaccines, and has openly made antisemetic and FALSE claims about Jewish people and COVID19. He's been photographed with convicted felons Steve Bannon and Roger Stone -- two of Trump's loyal agents of chaos and lies. How ANYONE would even THINK of voting for that nut case is a mystery.

skud: "It showed other countries that America is not a country to trust."

Did you forget how Trump abandoned our allies, the Kurds? Funny. You never said a word about that disastrous action by him and that it would show our allies that America is not to be trusted. You are quite selective when it comes to this.


skud: "...and now canada is attacking us with smoke."

Seriously? Canada set fire to its vast forests so that it could attack us with smoke? What the heck are YOU smoking? That's the silliest thing you've written in a long time! LOL!

Gawd! What people will say to avoid talking about climate change and global warming!

skud: "This is not because they have a great deal of respect for our leadership but they see us vulnerable and unwilling to support them."

That statement is absolutely and incontrovertibly FALSE! Biden put together a coalition of countries to support Ukraine. Those countries came together and supported what Biden proposed BECAUSE HE IS RESPECTED as a statesman. Do you honestly believe they'd cooperate with the guy who was laughed at while giving a speech at the UN? The guy who was mocked with a fat baby-in-diapers float whenever he appeared in Europe?

You, skud, live in a bubble. It seems you deliberately ignore what's in front of your nose and pretend none of those things happened while Trump was in office, yet you insist, without evidence, that it is Biden who's found weak by our allies?

All of the problems you claim are at historic highs are state problems, the feds have no control over homelessness in individual states. And homelessness is a problem in BLUE AND RED states. Or have you ignored what's been happening in Phoenix?

You may want to check your source for your claim about crime:

"Despite the increase in violent crime, particularly murders, between 2020 and 2021, the quantity of overall crime is still far below the peak of crime seen in the United States during the late 1980s and early 1990s, as other crimes such as rape, property crime and robbery continued to decline."

end

The minimum wage hasn't been increased since 2009. Yet CEO salaries have increased by double and sometimes triple digits:

"From 1978 to 2021, CEO pay based on realized compensation grew by 1,460%, far outstripping S&P stock market growth (1,063%) and top 0.1% earnings growth (which was 385% between 1978 and 2020, according to the latest data available). In contrast, compensation of the typical worker grew by just 18.1% from 1978 to 2021."--Oct 4, 2022.

I'm surprised you begrudge an increase in the minimum wage to the poor and middle class! Aren't you always complaining that Biden does nothing for them, yet he increased the minimum wage for federal employees! Working class folks.

Whose side are you on anyway?


skudrunner said...

Ms. Shaw, skud: "...and now canada is attacking us with smoke." Guess you thought I was serious, humor is never an asset liberals subscribe to.

Murder rates increased dramatically between 2011 and 2021, jumping 46% in one decade. Murder rates also increased by 8% between 2020 and 2021.
Property crime rates in American cities also climbed slightly between 2020 and 2021.

If you are not concerned with crime where you live then you should be congratulated for living in a safe place. Crime is a local thing just ask the average person living in San Francisco, NYC or LAX. When you are rich crime seldom affects you or you live in Las Vegas.
You gave an article from 2020, I don't believe the current president was in power and AZ is democrat at the last election.

Rev, From U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) had 211,401 alien encounters along the Southwest Border (SWB) in April 2023 — up almost 10% from the previous month and up nearly 20% from April 2021.
In just the first seven months of FY2023, 96 people whose names appear on the terrorist watchlist, including a shocking 16 in April alone, were stopped trying to cross the U.S.-Mexico border between ports of entry.
April had more terrorist watchlist apprehensions at the SWB than all of FY2017, FY2018, FY2019, & FY2020 combined.
So far in FY2023, nationwide, CBP has arrested 17,533 individuals with criminal convictions and apprehended 377 known gang members, 111 of those being MS-13 members.
In FY2023 alone, CBP has seized over 17,000 pounds of fentanyl coming across the Southwest border—enough to kill over 3.8 billion people.
In April 2023, fentanyl seizures at the Southwest border increased 14% compared to the previous month.
Proof enough for you.

Shaw Kenawe said...

"In just the first seven months of FY2023, 96 people whose names appear on the terrorist watchlist, including a shocking 16 in April alone, were stopped trying to cross the U.S.-Mexico border between ports of entry.

The "terrorists" WERE STOPPED! This is how border patrol is supposed to work. THEY WERE STOPPED!


"April had more terrorist watchlist apprehensions at the SWB than all of FY2017, FY2018, FY2019,"

The were STOPPED! "Apprehensions" means the act of arresting or seizing by legal process; arrest; seizure.


"So far in FY2023, nationwide, CBP has arrested 17,533 individuals with criminal convictions and apprehended 377 known gang members, 111 of those being MS-13 members."

ARRESTED! That means they were STOPPED and TAKEN INTO CUSTODY! Again, the border patrol is doing its job!


"CBP has seized over 17,000 pounds of fentanyl coming across the Southwest border..."

SEIZED! That means IT DID NOT ENTER THE US. The CBP did its job!


"In April 2023, fentanyl seizures at the Southwest border increased 14% compared to the previous month."

Well, Americans apparently LOVE TO TAKE DRUGS, and the cartels are trying to keep them supplied! If Americans weren't such druggies, there'd be no one trying to get the drugs into the country. See? PS. SEIZURES means DRUGS WERE STOPPED! CBP doing its job!


Proof enough for you. --skud

Yes. And thank you for showing that under President Biden, the CBP is doing an excellent job of STOPPING TERRORISTS and DRUGS from getting into the country.

BTW, do you know how many terrorists and drugs get into the country via international flights? Because that does happen, plus many other ways in which clever law-breakers do this?

But thank you for showing us all how our Border Patrol is working hard to stop drugs and terrorists from crossing our southern borders.

Dave Miller said...

Skud... encounters are not entries. That's the CPB doing their job.

You made a statement that illegal immigration, defined as illegal entries into the US, and I asked for the data. As Silver does to me, give us the links, otherwise you're just talking...

skudrunner said...

Ms. Shaw, I agree that drugs in the country are out of control but what they seize is a small portion of what is brought in. We should figure out that either we enforce our drug policy or we make all drugs legal and cut down on crime. In major cities across the country there is open drug use that is ignored and tent cities are numerous and occupied by drug users where we install vending machines to supply narcan.

Our elected elite would rather spend their time finding dirt on hunter and trump than do their job which is to represent the needs of the American people. Enforce our drug laws, come up with a workable and reasonable immigration policy, enforce our crime laws by supporting law enforcement, catch and release if fine for fishing but not for criminals.

We have our elected elite who's only concern is keeping their jobs and increasing their personal wealth. Their only focus is attacking the opposing party not representing the peoples needs.

Rev, Blinders work wonders

Dave Miller said...

Skud... no blinders at all. Make a definitive statement, back it up. Links and facts.

It's the only way to deal with folks... and if those folks refuse to do so, one has to wonder why.