Mike Murphy is a savvy Republican political consultant.
He has advised such nationally prominent Republicans as John McCain, Jeb Bush, John Engler, Tommy Thompson, Spencer Abraham, Christie Whitman, Lamar Alexander, and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
He was, until January 2006, an adviser to Mitt Romney, the Governor of Massachusetts and an about-to-become candidate for the Republican presidential nomination for the 2008 presidential election.
He stepped down as a result of his role as chief strategist to Governor Romney as well as Senator McCain, who were both widely expected to be Republican challengers in the primaries of the 2008 Presidential election. Murphy said he had decided to be neutral in a contest between two close clients, although he would advise each informally.
Despairing Republican friends have been asking me what I think we should do to rebuild the GOP and begin our certain and inevitable comeback.
My answer disappoints them: "Build an ark."I say this because I've made a career out of counting votes, and the numbers tell a clear story; the demographics of America are changing in a way that is deadly for the Republican Party as it exists today.
A GOP ice age is on the way.
For years, Republicans won elections because the country was chock-full of white middle-class voters who mostly pulled the GOP lever on Election Day.
Today, however, that formula is no longer enough.In 1980, Latino voters cast about 2% of all votes. Last year it was 9%, and Obama won that Hispanic vote with a crushing 35-point margin.
By 2030, the Latino share of the vote is likely to double. In Texas, the crucial buckle for the GOP's Electoral College belt, the No. 1 name for new male babies--many of whom will vote one day--is Jose.
Young voters are another huge GOP problem. Obama won voters under 30 by a record 33 points. And the young voters of today, while certainly capable of changing their minds, do become all voters tomorrow.Rather than face up to all this, too many in the GOP are stuck in a swoon of nostalgia. Most of our party leaders come from bloodred GOP states or safe districts, so they are far more at home in the tribal politics of Republican primaries than in those of the country as a whole. You could say their radio dials are stuck on AM.
The result is we hear a lot about going back to "the winning ways of Ronald Reagan." Well, I love Reagan too. But demographics no longer do.
In 1980, Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by 10 points. If that contest were held again today, under the current demographics of the electorate per exit polls, the election would be much closer, with Reagan probably winning by about 3 points.
13 comments:
I was feeling a bit down but after reading this my attitude is once again perky and optimistic. Thanks Shaw.
I think the GOP ice age is here.
The GOP has become a regional party of mainly old white guys who are bitter and cling to their guns and religion.
Obama was correct when he made the observation, even if the Right howled like stuck pigs.
Don't tell them about this.
Let them wander in the Ice Age forever.
Good riddance to the extremists of their party, maybe some day a moderate with brains will lead them.
I liked Murphy's thought on social issue libertarianism.
I wonder if the GOP could do that.
If they could, and were able to convince the American people they would be fiscally more responsible than the Dems, [certainly possible] they can return to power sooner than most would like to believe.
Dave, I agree. Shaw, hope you don't mind, but I used this article to write my latest entry as well. Slightly different direction than you did, but hey, thats okay.
Ah, well, he may be savvy, but his candidates don't have too good of a record in national elections. Perhaps Republicans should listen to someone who has advised a successful national candidate.
Times change, issues change and the electorate does too. But as always, I am touched by your concern for the future of the GOP!
Of course I would expect a political hack to look at the demographics and determine that there is a GOP Ice Age coming.
The biggest issue for both parties, but the one that kills the GOP is the fact that after 20 years of GOP influence and dominance Americans no longer believe they can get ahead.
We have watched as we have shifted from a society with social and economic mobility to one where we are split between the haves and the have nots.
Americans have watched their home values drop, their retirement disappear, their job security errode, their healthcare dwindle, and education costing more and returning less.
Its almost as if the we are clinging to our lifevests as the Titantic sinks and we see nothing but darkness...
The GOP comes off as a party of folks who don't care, and only want to protect their status quo.
Middle America, what is left of it, no longer believes that it is the status quo....
Its not the youth, its not the hispanics, its your guy and girl that goes to work everyday, pays their taxes, send their kids to school, and constantly finding themselves falling behind not getting ahead.
Its great to talk about freedom and opportunity but you got to produce this freedom and opportunity and Americans no longer see it.
America is Israel's best ally. The Jewish population here voted overwhelmingly(around 80%) for President Obama--so did Muslims by the way. AND YES NEOCONS, the Jewish voters here were aware of President Obama's positions on the subject regarding talking to dictators including Iran's, no new settlements, 2 states etc. If no other segment of voters do, I know the Jewish population do their research before voting. They, just like many other people, are sick of the past gridlock with Bush and Cheny.
Gordon,
No one thinks a one-party rule is good for the country. Look at what it did to the GOP for 6 ruinous years.
A reasoned opposition is healthy for a political system.
Unfortunately, that doesn't exist in this country just now.
When the opposition uses terms like "traitor," "Communist," "Fascist," "Marxist," "like Hitler," "Secret Muslim," "nonAmerican born," etc. to describe a duly elected president, that's called a cult of kooks, and not an opposition.
There are cooler, more pragmatic heads in the GOP, but they don't get the attention that people like Limbaugh, Beck, Hannity, and Cheney do.
That's to the detriment of the GOP.
And the country.
Most of those terms were used against GWB, Shaw, and not by the fringe, either.
Oy.
You know how many times I've heard people on the Right use that excuse?
You're way smarter than that, Gordon.
It happened, Shaw. If you condemn it on the right, you gotta condemn it on the left, too.
Mind you, the GOP does have its idiots: Dumb racist acts by GOP officials.
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