Obama's lead over McCain was 1.9 percent.
Today, his lead over Romney is 2.8 percent.
Other races and polls show:
Senate Forecast: What Has Gone Wrong for G.O.P. Candidates?
By NATE SILVER
"The trend in the presidential race has been difficult to discern lately. President Obama has very probably gained ground since the conventions, but it’s hard to say exactly how much, and how quickly his bounce is eroding.
There are no such ambiguities in the race for control of the Senate, however. Polls show key races shifting decisively toward the Democrats, with the Republican position deteriorating almost by the day.
Since we published our initial Senate forecast on Tuesday, Republicans have seen an additional decline in their standing in two major races.
Two polls of Virginia published on Wednesday gave the Democrat, the former Gov. Tim Kaine, leads of 4 and 7 percentage points over the Republican, the former Senator George Allen. The FiveThirtyEight forecast model now gives Mr. Kaine roughly a 75 percent chance of winning the seat on the strength of the new polls, up from about 60 percent in Tuesday’s forecast.
The other problematic state for Republicans is Wisconsin, where their candidate, the former Gov. Tommy Thompson, had once appeared to hold the advantage.
Mr. Thompson’s Democratic opponent, Representative Tammy Baldwin, had published an internal poll earlier this week showing her pulling into the lead. The FiveThirtyEight Senate and presidential forecasts do not use internal polls released directly by the campaigns, as they typically exaggerate their candidate’s standing."
These, of course, are only trends, and they don't say what will actually happen on election day. But they are trending toward President Obama, not Mr. Romney, and it's getting late in the campaign season.
We still have the debates to get through. Most experts say there aren't a whole lot of undecideds that the debates can bring to one side or the other.
It will be an interesting next 48 days.
h/t Pew Research, Andrew Sullivan's blog