Now the American people have given their opinion of Mr. Romney, and it isn't pretty.
His unfavorables are worse than Palin's and that's about as bad as it gets.
Romney's Personal Image Remains Negative
Obama Leads Nationwide, But Closer Race in Swing States
By a 52% to 37% margin, more voters say they have an unfavorable than favorable view of Mitt Romney. The poll, conducted prior to Romney’s recent overseas trip, represents the sixth consecutive survey over the past nine months in which his image has been in negative territory.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 16-26, 2012, among 2,508 adults, including 1,956 registered voters, finds that, in keeping with his favorability advantage, Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney.
Going into the three months before the election:
Aug. 1: Obama Extends Electoral College Advantage
Barack Obama’s standing in the FiveThirtyEight forecast reached its strongest position to date on Tuesday as a result of favorable polls in a set of swing states. The forecast model now gives Mr. Obama a 70.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 69.0 percent on Monday and from 65.0 percent last Tuesday.
Three of the polls were conducted by Quinnipiac University in conjunction with The New York Times and CBS News. The polls gave Mr. Obama leads of 6 points in each of Ohio and Florida, and an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania.
In each state, the polls are at the high end of the range of numbers produced by other polling firms. As we frequently advise, no one set of polls — no matter how reputable the pollster — should be read as gospel. Differences in the numbers from survey firm to survey firm often reflect sampling error or methodological differences rather than any fundamental change in the condition of the race.
Nevertheless, Ohio and Pennsylvania polls are part of a consensus of polls showing Mr. Obama ahead in these states by varying margins. Mr. Obama has led 11 of the 13 polls in Ohio since May 1, and he has led all 11 polls conducted in Pennsylvania during this period.
The Florida polls have been more equivocal: Mr. Obama has held 10 leads, versus six for Mitt Romney. Still, Florida is typically a somewhat Republican-leaning state. In an election that was truly even-money, you’d expect Mr. Romney to be leading in more of the Florida polls rather than the other way around.
In each state, the polls are at the high end of the range of numbers produced by other polling firms. As we frequently advise, no one set of polls — no matter how reputable the pollster — should be read as gospel. Differences in the numbers from survey firm to survey firm often reflect sampling error or methodological differences rather than any fundamental change in the condition of the race.
Nevertheless, Ohio and Pennsylvania polls are part of a consensus of polls showing Mr. Obama ahead in these states by varying margins. Mr. Obama has led 11 of the 13 polls in Ohio since May 1, and he has led all 11 polls conducted in Pennsylvania during this period.
The Florida polls have been more equivocal: Mr. Obama has held 10 leads, versus six for Mitt Romney. Still, Florida is typically a somewhat Republican-leaning state. In an election that was truly even-money, you’d expect Mr. Romney to be leading in more of the Florida polls rather than the other way around.
Nate Silver, also a baseball statistician, made his bones in the 2008 presidential election when he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states. Indiana was the only state he did not call correctly--Mr. Obama won it. Silver also predicted, correctly, all winners of the 35 Senate races in 2008.
Silver's blog "FiveThirtyEight is the first blog ever selected as a Notable Narrative by the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University..
I'd pay serious attention to what this guy predicts while eating your chicken and poblano sandwich!
48 comments:
It must be Romney flip flops, gaffes, and the left's incessant class warfare has had negative impact on Mittens.
Negative ads and negative media bias towards Romney has certainly played a huge part as well.
2012 is turning out be both hugely negative and un-inspiring.
Mr. Romney has engaged in plenty of negativity. You forget to mention that in your comment.
Mittens own ineptitude is responsible in greater part for his high negativity.
The election is not based solely on personality, some people look at accomplishments and ability. Granted this is becoming less of a factor as time goes on because looks and personality seem to trump qualifications.
With the unemployment rate trending up, employment participation rate trending down and the economy stale, it proves the incompetency of Obama and his handlers.
It does seem that their attack on success in every way is not helping move the country in a positive direction.
Maybe the American voter will realize that a president who attacks small business with his "you didn't build that" comment and is clueless with "the private sector is doing fine" will realize how someone who has always lived off the taxpayer has no idea how companies run and no idea what creating jobs is all about.
His handlers know that raising taxes on the rich will have no effect on the deficit but it sounds good to their masses.
Rn is so deep into the conservative cause, he calls what the left is doing class warfare.
I guess Romney's budget plan that favors only the top 2% isn't class warfare.
Yes, Romney's press is negative, and deservedly so, when he goes around pissing off our friends around the world. Romney doesn't need to worry about Obama's ads, he needs to worry about his elitist, uneducated mouth.
i see that skudrunner is still lying about what obama said...one trick pony isn't he...
Anon,
It is well documented both in print and video what he said and regardless how you deny it Obama made that statement.
Below came from one of Shaw's own references yet you still deny that he said that.
"If you've got a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."
This from Politifact.com
In case you didn't catch it the first 5,000 times the snippet ran on cable, yes, those words were uttered by Obama.
Maybe he didn't mean what he said but to deny he said it is idiotic.
Romney said I like to fire people which the Obama team took out of context. Did Romney say it - Yes.
No one is denying that Mr. Obama actually said the words, what he didn't say is that no business person built his own business. What the rest of his message was is that people work hard to build their businessse and lots of people contribute to their success.
He actually says that.
You obsess on a phrase, admit that taking it out of context was wrong for the Obama people to do to Romney, but still come here and foolishly obsess on Obama's words that were taken out of context by the Romney people.
I think you're deliberately being obtuse.
Steve if you, given your ideological proclivities like to accuse me of being so far into conservative causes, bla, bla, bla go right ahead.
As to being elitist, well, Obama with his air and look of superiority borne no doubt as the result of his Harvard/Community organizing background gives the strong sense of being an elitist every bit as much as Romney. If not more so.
Romney is by far from uneducated. He is gaffe prone like Joe B., and maybe a bit tone deaf at times, but uneducated he certainly isn't.
As I wrote on your blog, these are some of my ideological proclivities:
Defend the right of those who scream at the top of their lungs, that which you have spent a lifetime opposing.
Pro-choice on most issues, is the only approach to take.
Make abortions illegal, and take away a choice for those who need/want one, even if you think it's a despicable choice. Make guns illegal, take away a choice for those who want to own one. Making laws based on a religious basis, takes away the choice of those who do not believe in that ideology.
Where is the protection for the minority, if the majority simply makes their choices illegal, or legally unavailable?
If you don't like it, don't do it, but don't tell anyone else they cannot do it. In fact, fight for their right to make a choice different than yours.
Why eliminate someone else's choice simply because you find it offensive? Be offended, and say so, but you shouldn't have the power to eliminate their choice.
Joe is vice president, not president.
A big difference, for me anyways.
Romney is certainly uneducated when it comes to diplomatic oratory.
From a post by RN:
"Okay, I realize the Politicususa is a far left leaning commentary on Romney's lack of diplomacy and display of ineptitude. I also recognize that Romney is actually more intelligent than Sara Palin. But the point is the man is running for the highest office in our country and such lack of diplomacy certainly is not something any of us should be comfortable with."
You seem to agree with me about Romney's foreign performance.
Which makes me wonder (especially after your Jews willingly going to slaughter remark) what are your ideological proclivities? Your words are confusing me as to what your ideology is.
@ Steve... I wasn't sure if you were addressing your comments at me or Silver or if they were merely disjointed remarks meant to get a reaction.
No matter. I certainly am not going to respond to them here, assuming they were meant for me of course.
Biden, heartbeat away fron the big job...
Romney is certainly a bit deficient in diplomatic skills. I said that on my "extreme" right leaning site Steve.
I visit sites (both left and right)when I want to read extremism, or when I need to get the juices flowing. :)
RN,
My comment on your blog stood by itself, it was not a sub reply to Silvers comment.
Your post (I won't copy it here) talked about many things, one was choice. Thus my comment to you.
What's wrong with replying to them here, now that I have also posted them here?
You don't usually have a problem replying to anything (whether you agree or not) to anyone commenting.
Don't answer what your ideological proclivities are, especially if your words make that explanation a little shaky.
My site has almost 2,000 posts that speak for themselves as well.
Those who like can visit my site to view any replies I have made or further replies I may make with respect to your disjointed comments. Or not.
With respect to choice, as a libertarian I offer whatever choice you choose to make within the framework of existing law. As long as the same is offered me.
Now have a mighty fine afternoon.
"Obama with his air and look of superiority...'
That's a subjective description of Mr. Obama that reveals more about the writer's bias than it does Mr. Obama's demeanor. I, for example, don't consider his demeanor presenting as an air of superiority at all.
In fact, a majority of your fellow Americans don't agree with you, because they like Mr. Obama, personally, but not Mr. Romney who, according to Americans' perception of him, comes off as not being a "regular" guy and a member of the elite of the elite.
Mr. Obama doesn't have Swiss Bank accounts or money stashed in the Cayman Islands, several homes, [he doesn't have a "vacation home," nor car elevators and $77,000 deduction for a pet horse--things the elite of the elite enjoy.
"...borne no doubt as the result of his Harvard/Community organizing background..."
Mittens has TWO degrees from Harvard--do you perceive him as having an "air of superiority?" A community organizer works long hourse for practically nothing, has to be involved in inner city politics and intrigue, hardly a job that would give anyone an "air of superiority."
"...gives the strong sense of being an elitist every bit as much as Romney. If not more so."
If not more so? Your bias is all over the place.
And this is for skudrunner, who continue to blame Mr. Obama for the divisiveness in this country:
Lee Atwater - Republican strategist - in 1981:
"You start out in 1954 by saying, "Nigger, nigger, nigger." By 1968 you can't say "nigger"—that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states' rights and all that stuff. You're getting so abstract now [that] you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites.
And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I'm not saying that. But I'm saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me — because obviously sitting around saying, “We want to cut this,” is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than 'Nigger, nigger.' ”
Interview with Alexander P. Lamis (8 July 1981), as quoted in The Two-Party South (1984) by Alexander P. Lamis; originally published as an interview with an anonymous insider, Atwater was not revealed to be the person interviewed until the 1990 edition; also quoted in "Impossible, Ridiculous, Repugnant" by Bob Herbert in The New York Times (6 October 2005)
"
The GOP hasn't changed in 30 years.
And here's one of the GOP's stars, who knows how to out-Atwater, Atwater and "that coded" appeal to the bigots
The latest GOPer to dabble in the ridiculous fantasy that President Obama wasn’t actually born in the United States: Rep. Steve King (R-IA).
During a tele-townhall meeting late last week, King was asked about his views on whether President Obama is a natural-born American citizen. The Iowa Congressman noted that his staff had investigated the matter and found birth announcements in the two Hawaii newspapers the week after Obama’s birth. However, King went on to float the absurd notion that his parents “might’ve announced that by telegram from Kenya.”
RN,
What a dodge
That speaks volumes
Oh Stevie boy, you can visit RN USA, I replied fully there where you deposited you disjointed comments originally.
Shaw you are certain;y entitled to your "take" on things. So am I, whether you like the fact I disagree or not.
Bias, I am LMAO at your comment. From a dyed in the wool lefty your comment are just so rich.
RN,
Interesting your reply at your blog, said at the end, you would not post on a liberal site the answers you just gave (posted).
Why not?
My business Steve, so go visit RN if you want, and your lib friends can go visit and comment as well if they like. If not that's fine too.
RN,
Sounds like something Romney would say.
Romney does lack the experience of Chicago thuggery and street agitator. Yet I hear without the cameras he is quite sincere and on mark. Obama loves the camera and his ability to convince people how wonderful he thinks he is.For him it's about popularity so he can keep "some" distracted from his dismantling of our country.
you should really put up a warning sign about the pictures you display,I just puked on my desk.
http://rationalnationusa.blogspot.com/2012/08/oy-vey-mr-romney.html
Late night thoughts for whatever they might be worth.
"Anonymous said...
you should really put up a warning sign about the pictures you display,I just puked on my desk.
August 3, 2012 9:58 PM"
Sorry that the photo of Paul Revere sickens you.
No one forced you to come here.
Not worth anything after the dishonesty and cowardice you just exhibited.
"Sorry that the photo of Paul Revere sickens you."
Nice Shaw. But I think the dude Anon was sickened by the two guys kissing in front of Chick-fil-A.
Must be Anon is one of those right wing homophobes, right?
oR AM i MISSING SOMETHING ;)
.
Mr Obama has proven himself to be an effective President over the past three plus years. He has accomplished notable things while in office. Many people in USA see him as capable, honorable, open, honest and trustworthy. The voters voted for him in 2008 and accept him as President.
OMitt Rmoney is challenging Mr Obama for the Office Of President. So OMitt has to convince the voters that they (the voters) should choose Mr Rmoney.
Mr Obama will really not have to do much more than to leave the RepublicanT Party to marinate in their own hate filled mendacity. So far OMitt is not helping himself and has come across as a less than a trustworthy individual.
How does a person end up with a +$100 million private IRA?
Between now and November does anybody think the people/voters of USA will be willing to trust a candidate who has not released his/her federal tax return?
No matter how much the RW Murdoch Media/Fox Network followers _RED HOT WHITE-HATE_ Mr Obama, it is clear they have no love for OMitt. It must really gall them to have to pretend to make-nice to an Massachusetts elitist billionaire who has nothing in common with working people.
It is encouraging to see the most important indicator (Electoral College) leaning for Mr Obama.
You think it is bad now? Wait for a month. The RepublicanT Party hate machine will really crank up the irrational hatred.
Ema Nymton
~@:o?
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Sorry guys, I had to do that.
My comment section devolved into a name-calling slug fest.
Steve, RN apologized here for his horrid remark about American Jews.
I accepted, and I told him we would no longer speak of it.
RN made that remark on HIS blog.
If you want to continue to criticize hime for it, I would prefer you do so on his blog.
Since I accepted his apology, I cant' have the controversy continue here.
I think the best way to counter outrageous statements [see skudrunner] is to present FACTS that dispute them.
skudrunner has obsessed on a remark Mr. Obama made that the Romney people took out of context. He's like a dog on a bone about it, even though 3 fact-checking orgs have said Romney's organization is WRONG. The charge that Mr. Obama MEANT that business people didn't "do that," was deemed FALSE by the 3 fact-checking organizations.
"Anonymous, August 3, 2012 9:56 PM" said...
Romney does lack the experience of Chicago thuggery and street agitator. Yet I hear without the cameras he is quite sincere and on mark..."
Really? What else do you "hear" from those voices in your head?
Your comment added nothing to the discussion, but perhaps it unburdened you by sharing with us the things that you "hear."
Shaw, I see Stevarino boy's lying comment referring to me as a Jew hater and Nazi supporter is still up. Curious indeed that it is So much for not speaking of it huh?
RN, I believe I've deleted all of those comments.
Shaw, as of 8:53 AM this morning there was one comment still posted. I see they are no none as I revisited. Your explanation, as well as your action to delete all comments is certainly appreciated by me...
Thanks
I was a bit blurry-eyed after an evening of celebrating last night.
Shaw, I understand, been there done that.
Dammit all! I don't agree with much of what RN writes, but I will not stoop to name-calling. I get my points across to him with facts.
Name-calling and flame-wars accomplish nothing.
I've asked people NOT to do that to my commenters.
I will certainly refrain from initiating comments that a few of your commenters seem to excel in. However, when attacked with blatant lies and character assassination I will respond in kind.
Your own words assassinate your questionable character
Your wrote them
Are you telling us you wrote lies
Yada, Yada, Yada. No I'm telling you YOU did.
Toodles mumbles.
About what?
I wrote no lies about you
Your paranoia is running rampant
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