Shaw Kenawe: "Agreed, RN. We should never become complacent. But this isn't 2016, is it.
In 2016 there weren't groups of Republicans against Trump. Dozens of people who worked for the Bush administration and the McCain campaign are banded together to defeat Trump -- all non-cultist Republicans. And there are non-cultist Republican governors who are never Trumpers, and plenty of conservative groups out there producing ads and videos against Trump. Trump hasn't increased his base; in fact, he's lost a lot of it.
I don't know about you, but I haven't heard of anyone who voted for Hilary or Obama who has jumped on the Trump cultist train and is crossing over to vote for him. But thousands of people who voted for Trump in 2016 have abandoned him.
That's what's different this time.
Millions of people know what Trump is because he's been showing himself to be a malignant narcissist and pathological liar, cheat, and fraud for the past 3 1/2 years.
The pandemic is his Waterloo. He did everything wrong; thousands of Americans died because of his lying and deceit. The economy is in the toilet, the job numbers are horrible, the west is burning and the south is flooding.
And all Trump can do is lie.
As Woodward said in his interview with Cooper the other night, Trump has no mental ability to understand what is reality vs. what he tells himself is reality. As POTUS, he never dealt in facts or truth. He's made us all sick in one way or another.
As a nation, we're dealing with two viruses: Covid-19 and Donald J. Trump. We have to rid ourselves of both."
Trump's Ceiling Is Too Low for Him to Be Reelected
"As for those who keep coming back to the nostrum that he won four years ago, proved everyone wrong, and can do it again: They ignore that this time, he doesn’t have Hillary Clinton as an opponent. While Clinton is an incredibly bright and accomplished person, she accumulated an enormous amount of political baggage during her quarter century on the national stage. Until the #MeToo movement arrived, her husband went through his career as if he had a Teflon coating—nothing stuck to him. But Hillary was Velcro; seemingly everything stuck to her.
Comparing how Hillary Clinton was perceived in the 2016 campaign with Biden now defies logic. The CNN poll taken at the beginning of September 2016 showed Clinton with 41 percent of registered voters giving her a favorable rating and 57 percent giving her an unfavorable rating, for a net favorability of -16 percent. Trump showed a 42-percent-favorable, 56-percent-unfavorable split, for a -14 net rating. The new CNN poll gives Biden a 48-percent-favorable, 43-percent-unfavorable rating for a net of plus-5 points. Trump’s current numbers are 40 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable—a net -16 points.
Obviously, we are talking about anticipating human behavior, which is always problematic. But given that voting has already begun in some states, Trump does not even have 54 days to make a comeback. Similarly, an October Surprise may need to happen in mid-September for it to have any impact. It is a good bet that a lot of votes will be cast before that first debate on Sept. 29.
I understand the caution that many in my business have after the surprising outcome in 2016, but the only way this year resembles 2020 is that they both are presidential years, Trump is the Republican nominee, and both years begin with a 2. That’s it. Alan Greenspan’s irrational exuberance has given way, in my mind, to irrational caution. This is not 2016."
Comparing how Hillary Clinton was perceived in the 2016 campaign with Biden now defies logic. The CNN poll taken at the beginning of September 2016 showed Clinton with 41 percent of registered voters giving her a favorable rating and 57 percent giving her an unfavorable rating, for a net favorability of -16 percent. Trump showed a 42-percent-favorable, 56-percent-unfavorable split, for a -14 net rating. The new CNN poll gives Biden a 48-percent-favorable, 43-percent-unfavorable rating for a net of plus-5 points. Trump’s current numbers are 40 percent favorable, 56 percent unfavorable—a net -16 points.
Obviously, we are talking about anticipating human behavior, which is always problematic. But given that voting has already begun in some states, Trump does not even have 54 days to make a comeback. Similarly, an October Surprise may need to happen in mid-September for it to have any impact. It is a good bet that a lot of votes will be cast before that first debate on Sept. 29.
I understand the caution that many in my business have after the surprising outcome in 2016, but the only way this year resembles 2020 is that they both are presidential years, Trump is the Republican nominee, and both years begin with a 2. That’s it. Alan Greenspan’s irrational exuberance has given way, in my mind, to irrational caution. This is not 2016."
17 comments:
America is currently under attack. The ENEMY (the Dotard administration) is killing 1000 Americans a day. Dotard (and the complicit members of his administration) should be arrested, tried, convicted and executed for treason.
Well, Derv that's not going to happen.
All we can do now is vote the bastards out of office and make it an avalanche of a landslide so that the corrupt lying cheat in the Oval Office cannot dispute the results.
Trump is obviously a lunatic, contradicting an expert virologist, Redfield, and stating his ignorant, stupid and reckless comments about herd immunity instead. Who are the people who still support this functioning idiot?
Wait. When I visit your blog, I do encounter several of them. Is a sort of mass hysteria that's taken hold of their brains. Normal people saw this lunatic for what he is long ago.
Other than the misspellings in my obviously not proof read comment I stand by my position. It IS A GRAVE MISTAKE to underestimate trump or the dishonest republican party. trump CAN win this thing.
BTW, it's not 1930 and this isn't Germany either. But we are seeing loud and troubling echoes of 1933 Germany in our own country right now. trump, Barr, Caputo (now on LOA for 2 monyhs), Giuliani to name but a few.
Remember, trump does pretty well in debates against his opponents. Those haven"t happened yet. I'm hoping for the best and planning for the worst.
RN I didn't even notice those typos. Texting on a phone does that.
True, what you wrote. There's always the possibility that Russia may help Trump win again! Trump's own Republican committee on the Russian interference found that THERE WAS RUSSIAN INTERFERENCE THAT HELPED HIM WIN IN 2016.
WASHINGTON — For years, President Trump has derided the assessment by American intelligence officials that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election to assist his candidacy, dismissing it without evidence as the work of a “deep state” out to undermine his victory.
But on Tuesday, a long-awaited Senate review led by members of Mr. Trump’s own party effectively undercut those allegations. A three-year review by the Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee unanimously found that the intelligence community assessment, pinning blame on Russia and outlining its goals to undercut American democracy, was fundamentally sound and untainted by politics.
But you'll never hear Trumpers refer to this finding. Yes, Trumpers are that dishonest. And they apparently are okay with having a foreign country, hostile to the US, help Trump in getting elected and re-elected. And they believe they're fine Americans.
Make sure every American knows that Trump is a sexual predator. Another woman has come forward accusing him of rape. How many does that make? 25? 30?
The Trumpanzees are just fine with a pig who disrespect women. Get rid of Predator Trump!
Paula... some, Skud included, make a big deal of the accusation against Joe Biden, mocking us and other progressives for our continued support of him. Oddly, they fail to see any problems supporting Trump and his now what? 20 accusations?
If Biden should be disqualified, what about Trump?
Re "Well, Derv that's not going to happen". Will Donald Trump end up in prison? He could be a step closer (excerpt) ...one reason Trump is so keen to accuse Obama and Biden of criminality is because he is starting to get nervous about going to jail himself. Last week, Biden pledged that, if elected president, he wouldn’t use his executive powers to pardon Trump of potential crimes. [end]
Kamala Harris has also said that the Justice Dept. "Would Have No Choice" But To Prosecute Trump After Presidency. I say we go with Glenn Kirschner's idea of a Trump Crimes Commission. Kirschner thought Dotard was guilty of negligent homicide for the covid deaths. Following the Woodward revelation he's dropped "negligent". Dotard is a mass murderer. I doubt he'll get the death penalty, but there HAS to be some kind of reckoning (including punishment).
btw, unlike last time, this time Dotard has control of the levers of power. And he's using them to up his cheating game significantly. Regardless of where his ceiling is, I think he could "win". I DO expect he may very well declare victory on election day -- and we will be faced with MANY "Floridas" this time. Or he could steal the presidency via the 12th amendment. While I am positive Biden will win the popular vote, I am very worried that Dotard will remain president.
Since the Rev brought my name up I feel compelled to respond. Yes trump is a sexual predator and so is biden. Both have been accused and therefore are guilty.
Ms. Shaw you make reference to my dislike for the swell guy and you are correct. He attacked the middle class, he attacked business owners, he sold out the American people, his transparent administration was more opaque than any in history. Now he leads an organization who's function is to create unrest. I know you think he is just swell but I don't share your opinion.
Derv, Very difficult to prosecute a president and with trump especially difficult. By the time it went to court trump will be in his mid eighties. Of course that won't stop congress from spending millions to get no where which is what they did in the impeachment fiasco. There is a big difference, the impeachment resulted in thousands of deaths and a torn up SOTU address mentioning the virus. As a top congressman said, trump is bringing up a virus to divert attention from impeachment. The virus is a scare tactic and is a hoax. Now you have joey peddling his I would be tough even after he said it was all a scare tactic, guess he forgot he said that.
Apparently you and I agree without any differences on this Derv. Biden will win the popular vote, possibly by a larger margin than 2016. trump, who has set the stage talking about massive fraud the result of mail in ballot voting (no evidence exists supporting this) will not conceed defeat, will declare victory, and a long drug out legal challenge will follow. All the way to the trump SCOTUS, trump's fake win will be confirmed.
America will NEVER recover from the corruption and destruction of the trump presidency.
By America will never recovef I meant in our lifetime. Meaning those at or over 60 years of age.
skud wrote: . "Of course that won't stop congress from spending millions to get no where which is what they did in the impeachment fiasco."
Don't you mean the "BENGHAZI fiasco?" Millions and millions and millions of $$$ were spent so that Committee chairman Trey Gowdy could report to the American people: "no wrong-doing on Hilary Clinton's part."
Again, it's typical of Trumpers and his cultists to promote only their talking points.
Biden has been accused by one woman of sexual assault. Trump has been accused by 20+ women, this week another came forward, and also there's that pesky accusation that he raped a 13-year-old child. See anything different there?
BTW, I'd like you to tell the families of the 200,000 dead Americans that the Covid-19 response is a "Democrat HOAX" and scare tactic.
Start with Herman Cain's family.
I was not able to find a quote by Joe Biden saying Covid-19 is a "scare tactic." Please link to it, including context.
This is for skud, who complained about the money spent on Trump's impeachment:
According to an estimate from the Heritage Foundation in December, the Democrat-led House of Representatives inquiry, and eventual impeachment of Trump for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress on Dec. 18, cost taxpayers an estimated $3.06 million.
BENGHAZI HEARINGS: The final report, not including dissenting views from committee Democrats, clocks in at more than 322,000 words. It was added to the official House record without fanfare on Dec. 7 by Rep. Trey Gowdy, R-S.C., the panel’s chairman.
The panel, which spent more than $7.8 million over two and a half years, disbanded at the end of the 114th Congress, with a finding of no wrong-doing on Hilary Clinton's part.
The Republican led Senate with the exception of Mitt Romney, found Trump "not guilty" of his high crimes and misdemeanors. As a result, Trump continued with his corruption, lying, cheating, and fraud. Just ask the families of the almost 200,000 dead Americans.
Shaw... actually, there were many in the GOP Senate who said the Dems proved their case and in fact, trump was guilty. They just, apart from Romney, did not think it rose to the level of impeachment.
So as a point of fact, when adding the GOP Senators who took that view, including Murkowski and Alexander among others, a majority of US Senators were in agreement that Trump was guilty of the charges brought by the Dems.
As for Skud calling Biden a predator, I think the jury is still out. By Dem standards of the 90's, where all women are to be believed, we would have to conclude that he did harass the one woman who spoke up. But, if that is the standard we are taking, then Trump is a serial molester, frequently harasses women, has regularly cheated on his wife and not only lies about it, he brags about it on tape.
On balance, I'll take Biden's one time accusation any day over the breadth of accusations against Trump.
If this election turns on character, which the GOP used to believe mattered, it should be no contest.
Biden, like everyone else, is a man with flaws. But he is at his core a decent man.
Can we say that about President Trump?
Definitively NO.
"By Dem standards of the 90's, where all women are to be believed..."
That is NOT the standard. The standard is that all women's accusations are to be taken seriously. Trust but verify. Re Biden's accuser, I think the media has verified (to the extent it can) that what she accuses Biden of most likely did not happen. If he were a sexual predator, an accuser coming forward would have given other victims the courage to come forward. Except there are ZERO other accusers. I think that is some pretty strong evidence Biden is NOT a sexual predator. While Dotard absolutely is. We have his own words on tape confirming that he sexually assaults women. That is in addition to the MANY Dotard accusers who have come forward.
Meanwhile (re the 13 year old who Dotard raped) predisent Dotard Promotes Tweet Falsely Labeling Biden a Pedophile -- prompting Lisa to post a photoshopped image of Dotard wearing a "BLM" t-shirt on her blog (where "BLM" stands for "Biden Likes Minors").
Derv quoted me correctly when he wrote... "That is NOT the standard."
He is 100% correct. The problem is that in the 90's NOW and other feminist organizations leaned into the standard that ALL women were to be believed and that there was no such thing as consensual workplace sex between a boss and someone they supervised.
But that is no longer the standard as Dems and women's rights groups have learned that they will get into trouble with that standard.
Now the standard seems to be all women deserve to be "heard."
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