Paul Revere by Cyrus Dallin, North End, Boston



Friday, January 5, 2018

When a Gooper tells you how great the Stock Market has performed while #45's been in office...

Goopers, you can have your own opinions but you can't have your own facts.

Steven Rattner

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Rational Nation USA said...

Question - Are the dynamics the same?

Obama's growth followed a serious meltdown.

tRump's growth occurred during an already expanded and expanding economy.

Is this comparison one of apples and oranges?

Craig said...

Is this comparison one of apples and oranges?
RN, Probably. First, the market isn't the best indicator of the health of the economy. 2nd, trajectory is important. When Obama took office it was during the worst recession since the Great Depression and the markets were nose diving. Cons mocked the stimulus package and the auto industry loans. Clearly, they had a positive effect. 1/3 of the stimulus was middle income tax cuts, top marginal rates didn't change until 2014 when obama extended tax cuts for the bottom 80% and slightly raised taxes for the top quintile. 7 years of steady growth, jobs and median incomes recovered. Bush and Repubs crashed the economy and Obama was criticized for not fixing it faster.

Cut to Trump. The market was already on an upward trajectory. Give him credit for accelerating the rise. The market is reacting to anticipating deregs and tax cuts as well as stronger overseas markets (stronger than U.S.). We'll see how it plays out but I'm betting on the experts who say deregs will result in short term economic gains and long term losses for humans and the planet. Tax cuts will be plowed into stock buybacks, driving up earnings for CEOs and hedge fund managers.

I think we're headed for a big correction (results not guaranteed, read the prospectus) and us poor slobs will be holding the bag again. Irrational exuberance?

Shaw Kenawe said...

This will add to the discussion. Go to the link for details:

A lot of investors attribute the stock market’s post-election strength to President Trump, which is rather sad.

Fortunately for them, there’s much more to the “Trump bump” than Trump.

We learned that this week from the market’s reaction to Trump’s Obamacare reform failure on March 24.

Investors nervous about this setback unloaded shares at the open Monday. But it didn’t last long. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.83% closed slightly in the green, and the S&P 500 SPX, +0.70% and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.88% came close.

That’s the market telling us the big post-election rally is about much more than Trump.

Zoom out and we get the same message. The S&P 500 rallied 7% from late June through Election Day. During that time, it wasn’t clear that Trump would win. So it’s difficult to give him credit for that rally.

With apologies to Trump supporters and the Donald himself, we can probably say the same for the 8% rally since the election. The bottom line is that the global and U.S. economies were doing fine before Trump came into office. And this economic momentum may be hard to break. This is good news for investors.

“A market dependent on proposed initiatives alone is far more fragile than one grounded on solid economics,” wrote RBC Capital Markets chief equity strategist Jonathan Golub in a note Monday called “Message to Market: It’s Not All About Donald.”

Here are four reasons why the Trump bump has less to do with Trump than you might think.

1. Global growth is solid
2. Solid U.S. wage growth will continue
3. Inflation will pick up
4. Energy made a comeback

Kevin Robbins said...

I trust Trump will be willing to take credit when the market goes into a slump. Recessions happen and we're certainly due for one before 2020.

skudrunner said...

So the rich got richer under BHO and the middle class shrunk after the constant attack by his administration. As a middle class business owner I can say the eight years of obama was a difficult time but I am not in the same wealth class as obama's most ardent supporters.

Jerry Critter said...

Obama had to turn around a crashing economy first. Trump continued and expanded a growing economy. Which is harder?

Kevin Robbins said...

I am not in the same wealth class as obama's most ardent supporters.

I can assure you that you've made more money than I have and I'm one of Obama's most ardent supporters.