Blogger Infidel753 was correct in his analysis about President Obama's performance at the first presidential debate: There'd be a bump for Romney, but it wouldn't last. The lastest polls prove Infidel's analysis correct.
Hey Dems! Chill out! It looks like we're gonna be okay.
"While there’s been an array of state and national numbers over the last few days, two sets of polls from NBC/WSJ/Marist and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac represent some of the first results from top outlets that polling analysts tend to lend the most credibility. And the numbers, while improved for Romney, still show Obama with an advantage in key states.
Most important: Ohio, a likely must-win for Romney where Obama has held a solid lead in recent weeks. NBC/WSJ pegs the race at 51-45 for Obama, a 2-point bounce for Romney since their last poll with the president’s own support remaining steady. It’s the second post-debate poll of Ohio from a major news organization to show Obama breaking the 50 percent barrier — CNN put him up 51-47.
“The reality is that if there’s a preponderance of solid polling showing Ohio squarely in Obama’s corner, Romney remains in trouble,” Blake Zeff, a Democratic strategist, told TPM. “I’d like to see more polls there before reaching any conclusions, but today’s is a start.”
Regardless of the polling, however, Zeff added that it may take a solid debate performance from Obama in New York next week to reassure jittery supporters.
In another encouraging takeaway for Democrats, NBC/WSJ found that Democrats’ ground game may be paying dividends in early voting. Obama is winning Ohioans who have already cast their ballot by a 63-37 margin, and they make up 1 in 5 of the poll’s respondents. Early voting began the day before the first debate, giving Romney an opportunity to potentially bank some ballots ahead of Election Day with his strong performance, but it seems from NBC’s results that Obama still has the edge there.
Some 92 percent of voters also said their minds were made up before the debate, suggesting that Romney may have somewhat small — though still significant — base to court in the final weeks.
Another key state is Virginia, which could put Obama over the top in a number of hypothetical electoral scenarios that have him losing Ohio and Florida.
Here the two pollsters diverged. CBS/NYT found Obama actually gaining on Romney to move into a 51-46 lead, even in the immediate aftermath of a debate that the vast majority of state voters thought the president lost. NBC found things closer at 48-47 Romney, a shift from a 48-46 edge for Obama in their previous poll.
Other swing states polled suggested a tight race, but one whose margins are little changed from before the debate. CBS/NYT put Wisconsin at 50-47 Obama and Colorado at 47-48 Romney. NBC/WSJ found Florida essentially tied at 48-47 Obama, the same margin as before the debate. "
h/t TalkingPointsMemo
Go read more from Infidel753.
13 comments:
Well done. And here's another heads up from Charles Blow:
http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/premature-desperation/?smid=fb-share
Good, but take it all with a grain of salt, whether the Dems' poll results are up a bit or down a bit. Things are overheated and being over analyzed now. The excessive reaction on both sides to Obama's bad night on the job is a perfect example.
Dems will be okay. This might be factual. If so...
... Then we wait four more years to see how the country is doing.
If Obama wins I hope the country does well. Time will tell.
I won't be holding my breathe.
To Silverfiddle:
"qui cum canibus concumbunt cum pulicibus surgent"
Don't compare Steve with the pig Radical Redneck, because there is none. Steve is passionate about what he believes, but he's never done to you what your pals RR and Thersites have done to me. Not even close.
They are a special brand of women-hating internet bullies, and they belong to the conservative movement.
You choose to publish Radical Redneck's comments on your blog that bash me and my blog, even when I haven't been on your blog and when those comments have nothing to do with the subject.
I showed you what sort of a pig he is, and you chose to defend him and insult me.
No male commenter who disagrees with your pov has been subjected to the sort of insults, filth, and harassment that RR and Thersites have perpetrated on me on my blog.
They both are the epitome of what the conservative movement has become.
Shaw, perhaps I am in error, but the conservatives I personally know are not what you describe. Anyone with those attributes is a red neck reactionary. Individuals that no real conservative would defend, let alone support and encourage.
SK: qui cum canibus concumbunt cum pulicibus surgent
Uh, lemme guess -- "Quick! Come! The dog strapped on top of the bus is confounding the public, sergeant!"
Thanks for the flattering references. It's striking that Obama's lead has held up best in the swing states. People there have seen the most Obama ads exposing Romney for what he really is, and are less likely to be swayed by superficialities.
The RCP average is already moving back our way -- Romney's lead is down from a peak of 1.5 to 0.7 now, and that's still including the notorious Pew poll whose sample makes it far from credible.
And based on first reactions, Biden's debate performance is working wonders at getting the troops fired up.
PS: Shaw, did you see my e-mail last week about those "#links" suffixes on the URLs of your hyperlinks?
RN, I should have qualified my remark, but I was angry at the time I wrote it.
But I stand by my claim that a lot, not all, but a lot of conservative males deal with liberal female bloggers with personal, filthy attacks and with unceasing harassment. IOW they are cowardly bullies and half wits.
You and SF claim Steve is just as bad? A ridiculous claim, since SF has not been personally harassed by Steve, nor have you or SF had to find pornography in your blog's comment section from Steve.
Those are the dirty tactics used by worms like RR and Thersities, and they're treated with respect by other conservatives, while they sneakily harass and attack a liberal woman.
They probably don't do it to males they disagree with because they're too yellow. That's a perfect description of a bully and both those creeps belong to the conservatives.
I don't want to speak anymore about it. I'm done with them.
Infidel753,
You and Nate Silver were correct all along. But I still loved reading The Bastard's rant. I've sent that around to all my friends, whom I refer to in Italian as "le donne e i uomini di poco fide."*
[Women and nen of little faith.]
*A term my father used to describe Red Sox fans.
Infidel753, Please resend the email, I may have inadvertently deleted it. Thanks.
I shall patiently explain once again, Shaw, that my blog is an open forum for anyone who behaves themselves.
Some brawling goes on, but you know that I deleted some comments in the past that went over the line in attacking you personally.
I do not hold you responsible for the idiotic things leftwing loonies say here, and it is ridiculous for you to blame me for what others say at my blog.
"... nor have you or SF had to find pornography in your blog's comment section from Steve."
I simply must inform you that in fact I did receive pornography in my comment section, which is another reason why I syay with comment moderation.
Now, to be honest the comment was left under Anon (again) so I have no way of knowing who it was who left it there. Therefore, I cannot say it was Steve. Whoever it is that delights in that kind of activity is, simply put, an a*sh*le.
Don't hide your stupidity RN, you have blamed me for every nasty (according to you) thing ever said about you on any blog.
Your paranoia and egotism leads you to believe only one person is 6 people.
It's not nasty to repeat the disgusting things you say, it is fact.
If you think it is distasteful, maybe you should change your distasteful thinking, or at least have the brains to keep it to yourself.
And I will even agree with you Shaw, that Steve is not in the same category, but he is a pest.
When you guys kicked me out of you little splash pool a few years ago, I respected your banishment and never went back. Steve has not learned such manners.
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