Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Trump's Demographic and Electoral Votes Problems
An anonymous poster came to the comments section below this post and left this:
Can you folks be honest? Does Trump scare you at all? You know you have a very flawed candidate in Crooked Hillary. You do realize in 1980 Jimmy Carter was 30% ahead of Reagan at this point. You do remember what happened then?
May 10, 2016 at 2:17 AM
Anonymous is betting on a repeat of what happened almost 40 years ago in the Carter-Reagan election. But Anonymous has little understanding of how the demographics have changed over more than two generations ago. Heck, things have changed since the 2008 presidential election, and those demographics favor Democrats, not Republicans.
Here's a graphic I found on Democratic Underground that explains Trump's number problems within these important voting blocs:
Anonymous, like many TGOPers, lives in a bubble which prevents any facts getting through. He/she sounds like so many TeaPublicans trying to talk themselves into accepting the Short-Fingered Vulgarian as the leader of their party and possible leader of the free world.
They believe people who do not support The Trumper are "afraid" of him. Yes, we're "afraid" of him the way we were afraid of Sarah Palin.
Just remember how the 2008 turned out while people like "Anonymous" gloat nostalgically about past presidential elections.
Chris Cillizza, Washington Post:
Republicans have a major electoral-map problem in November.
Donald Trump’s victory last week in Indiana’s primary not only effectively sealed the GOP nomination for the real estate billionaire but also brought into sharp relief how difficult it will be for any Republican to get to 270 electoral votes and beat Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president this fall.
Eighteen states plus the District of Columbia have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election between 1992 and 2012.
Add them up, and you get 242 electoral votes.
By contrast, 13 states have voted for the Republican presidential nominee in each of the past six elections.
Total them up and you get 102 electoral votes.
There are two important takeaways from these facts:
The generic Democratic nominee starts with an electoral vote lead of 140, and the Democratic nominee needs to find only 28 votes beyond that reliable base to win the presidency.
What that means in practical terms is that if Clinton wins the 19 states that every Democratic nominee dating to her husband has won and she wins Florida (29 electoral votes), she wins the White House.
It’s that simple. Or if she wins the 19 reliable Democratic states and Virginia (13 electoral votes) and Ohio (18). Or the 19 states plus Nevada (6), Colorado (9) and North Carolina (15).
You get the idea.
There are lots and lots and lots of ways for Clinton — or any Democratic nominee — to get to 270 electoral votes.
There are very few ways for Trump — or any Republican nominee — to get there.