By Picking Donald Trump As the GOP Nominee, Republicans May Have Handed the Presidency to Hillary Clinton
Why did GOP voters pick such a weak general election candidate? ...
But the reality, as Nate Cohn writes pursuasively in The New York Times, is that just about every data point we have right now suggests that Trump would be a historically weak candidate—even against someone who would normally be considered a fairly weak candidate, like Hillary Clinton.
In giving the nomination to Trump, then, Republicans may have ensured a win for Clinton—the outcome that, in theory, the party was trying to prevent.
This isn’t some startling new conclusion. Trump’s weakness as a general election candidate has been apparent for months. And yet Republican primary voters appear to have, if anything, warmed to him as the election has gone on. He won Indiana with slightly more than 53 percent of the vote last night, beating out the combined vote total of both of his rivals, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, suggesting that Trump’s success is not strictly a result of the fractured field.
So what’s going on? The general presumption when looking at these races is that primary voters take electability into account in their decision process. That just doesn’t seem to have happened this year, and it’s one of the reasons that campaign staffers and election analysts have struggled to understand what voters are thinking.
Maybe, though, it did happen—but Republicans just didn’t accept the evidence that was in front of them.
Just a reminder: the primary voters are not the general election voters.
Right wing news sites and bloggers are all unhappy people blaming everyone but themselves for the hot mess they've brought on themselves by allowing a short-fingered vulgarian to become the Republican nominee. The right has been pandering to the dimwits and racists and nativists in their party for decades, and Trump is the logical outcome of that. They didn't want an "establishment" candidate, so they went for a guy who has no core beliefs and isn't a conservative -- and all they can do is bitch about it.
Many of the extremists have excoriated Obama for being power hungry, narcissistic, divisive and all other of nefarious things. Yet in the end, even as they recognize these traits in Trump, rather than stick to their convictions, they put aside all those issues and say, "even though I do not like it, I will vote for Trump."
Why? Because he is on their team? Can there be any other reason?
Love the Mencken quote. If only he'd lived 100 years later to see this. There was plenty of stupidity in his time too, tho.
Since you mentioned it at my place, TPM has a story on Dr. Ben's staff work on behalf of the nominee of the lunatic party. Can't help but wonder whether the good doctor realizes Cruz would have to be approved by the Senate for both of those jobs. It's only a question of who hates him more, Dems or Reps.
True Ahab, but, what Drumpf lacks in oratorical skill he more than makes up for in unadulterated BS.
Apparently (and unfortunately) there is a rather significant number of republicans other than the TeaPublicans that are buying his nationalistic populism.
November's choice will be a tough one for many. Lets hope they make the rational choice.
We're actually going to see Donald Effing Trump as a major party nominee, with--strictly on paper, mind you--a 50% chance of obtaining the presidency and most powerful position in the world.
Donald Effing Trump, a classic NPD egomaniac with zero elected experience and an awful business record.
Donald Effing Trump, a man with a third grade vocabulary and someone who feels it necessary to pick Twitter fights with Rosie O'Donnell and tell the world the size of his dick.
With Trump we know what we will get. Chaos - because he changes sides on an issues like a mother changes a babies' diaper every 20 minutes. With Trump we'll get further demise of the middle class. Don't forget that he sent American jobs to China and Mexico to increase his profits on his clothing lines. So why should we expect any change in the status of the working class and the middle class. He showed what he thinks of working class people by sending jobs overseas. He panders to all disaffected groups by telling them what they want to hear, not what is reality. His followers like to say he's "one of them." Huh? How many of them have a private jet, live in a Louis XIV mansion, own 5 or 6 homes, and are married to a fashion model who posed nekkid in girlie magazines? His fans should be so lucky.
With Trump, we have plenty of clues because he has a long and sordid past that people have been reading about for decades -- his serial adultery, his screwing over working-class people, his bankruptcies, and worse, his going after the Central Park Five who were wrongly accused of rape. Trump wanted the death penalty for them -- knowing NOTHING about the case. They were subsequently vindicated. Trump is a dangerous moron who hasn't the temperament nor the knowledge to be POTUS. The people supporting him are ignorant, angry, and vindictive, willing to destroy this country over their personal grievances.
Trump isn't worth being scraped off of Hillary Clinton's shoes.
"Senator Susan Collins of Maine told a home-state radio station on Wednesday that she’s holding out her endorsement until she sees whether the bombastic real estate tycoon can behave like a president."
Good luck, Susan.
"Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, told a local news outlet the senator plans to support the nominee, only to later send a media statement insisting that doesn’t mean that she’s endorsing him."
It's called a dilemma, Kelly. Buh bye.
"Senator Dean Heller of Nevada didn’t hide his scorn. “I vehemently oppose our nominee and some of the comments and issues he brought up during the campaign.""
Good move, Dean.
"Republican Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska wrote an open letter published late Wednesday where he said there are "dumpster fires in my town more popular" than Trump or Clinton."
The Republican party is a freakin' dumpster fire, Ben.
There are more. This is as divisive as a brokered convention. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Ducky, I just read that Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. will not endorse Trump, and Ryan isn't supporting him now either. Who's supporting him? Mike Tyson and TEd Nugent?
15 comments:
A great orator he ain't!
Ahab, but a great demagogue he is.
Meanwhile in other news today:
Peter Suderman:
By Picking Donald Trump As the GOP Nominee, Republicans May Have Handed the Presidency to Hillary Clinton
Why did GOP voters pick such a weak general election candidate? ...
But the reality, as Nate Cohn writes pursuasively in The New York Times, is that just about every data point we have right now suggests that Trump would be a historically weak candidate—even against someone who would normally be considered a fairly weak candidate, like Hillary Clinton.
In giving the nomination to Trump, then, Republicans may have ensured a win for Clinton—the outcome that, in theory, the party was trying to prevent.
This isn’t some startling new conclusion. Trump’s weakness as a general election candidate has been apparent for months. And yet Republican primary voters appear to have, if anything, warmed to him as the election has gone on. He won Indiana with slightly more than 53 percent of the vote last night, beating out the combined vote total of both of his rivals, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, suggesting that Trump’s success is not strictly a result of the fractured field.
So what’s going on? The general presumption when looking at these races is that primary voters take electability into account in their decision process. That just doesn’t seem to have happened this year, and it’s one of the reasons that campaign staffers and election analysts have struggled to understand what voters are thinking.
Maybe, though, it did happen—but Republicans just didn’t accept the evidence that was in front of them.
Just a reminder: the primary voters are not the general election voters.
Donald Trump - proving once and for all that you don't have to be poor to be pure white trash.....
True Ahab, but, what Drumpf lacks in oratorical skill he more than makes up for it in BS.
Unfortunately a rather significant number of americans apparently approve of his gutter rhetoric.
Trumpism is indicative of the growing efforts to further dumb down the American electorate. It started with Sarah Palin and now America has Drumpf.
Only the gods on Mt. Olympus know where and how it will end.
Right wing news sites and bloggers are all unhappy people blaming everyone but themselves for the hot mess they've brought on themselves by allowing a short-fingered vulgarian to become the Republican nominee. The right has been pandering to the dimwits and racists and nativists in their party for decades, and Trump is the logical outcome of that. They didn't want an "establishment" candidate, so they went for a guy who has no core beliefs and isn't a conservative -- and all they can do is bitch about it.
Many of the extremists have excoriated Obama for being power hungry, narcissistic, divisive and all other of nefarious things. Yet in the end, even as they recognize these traits in Trump, rather than stick to their convictions, they put aside all those issues and say, "even though I do not like it, I will vote for Trump."
Why? Because he is on their team? Can there be any other reason?
Of course not...
Love the Mencken quote. If only he'd lived 100 years later to see this. There was plenty of stupidity in his time too, tho.
Since you mentioned it at my place, TPM has a story on Dr. Ben's staff work on behalf of the nominee of the lunatic party. Can't help but wonder whether the good doctor realizes Cruz would have to be approved by the Senate for both of those jobs. It's only a question of who hates him more, Dems or Reps.
OK, I hadn't even read the article yet. Carson is loonier than Trump.
A great orator he ain't!
True Ahab, but, what Drumpf lacks in oratorical skill he more than makes up for in unadulterated BS.
Apparently (and unfortunately) there is a rather significant number of republicans other than the TeaPublicans that are buying his nationalistic populism.
November's choice will be a tough one for many. Lets hope they make the rational choice.
We're actually going to see Donald Effing Trump as a major party nominee, with--strictly on paper, mind you--a 50% chance of obtaining the presidency and most powerful position in the world.
Donald Effing Trump, a classic NPD egomaniac with zero elected experience and an awful business record.
Donald Effing Trump, a man with a third grade vocabulary and someone who feels it necessary to pick Twitter fights with Rosie O'Donnell and tell the world the size of his dick.
With Trump we know what we will get. Chaos - because he changes sides on an issues like a mother changes a babies' diaper every 20 minutes. With Trump we'll get further demise of the middle class. Don't forget that he sent American jobs to China and Mexico to increase his profits on his clothing lines. So why should we expect any change in the status of the working class and the middle class. He showed what he thinks of working class people by sending jobs overseas. He panders to all disaffected groups by telling them what they want to hear, not what is reality. His followers like to say he's "one of them." Huh? How many of them have a private jet, live in a Louis XIV mansion, own 5 or 6 homes, and are married to a fashion model who posed nekkid in girlie magazines? His fans should be so lucky.
With Trump, we have plenty of clues because he has a long and sordid past that people have been reading about for decades -- his serial adultery, his screwing over working-class people, his bankruptcies, and worse, his going after the Central Park Five who were wrongly accused of rape. Trump wanted the death penalty for them -- knowing NOTHING about the case. They were subsequently vindicated. Trump is a dangerous moron who hasn't the temperament nor the knowledge to be POTUS. The people supporting him are ignorant, angry, and vindictive, willing to destroy this country over their personal grievances.
Trump isn't worth being scraped off of Hillary Clinton's shoes.
Holy blowhard, Batman, it's the Republican presidential nominee.
Pity the poor rabies media. They bet against him and now don't know what to do.
It's an ill wind that blows no good
That's right, John. La Drumpf has backed you into a bad corner with Hispanic voters.
The vulgarian should manage to alienate moderate women and others as well.
No telling how much damage Drumpf does down ticket.
More evidence the Republican party is screwed.
"Senator Susan Collins of Maine told a home-state radio station on Wednesday that she’s holding out her endorsement until she sees whether the bombastic real estate tycoon can behave like a president."
Good luck, Susan.
"Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, told a local news outlet the senator plans to support the nominee, only to later send a media statement insisting that doesn’t mean that she’s endorsing him."
It's called a dilemma, Kelly. Buh bye.
"Senator Dean Heller of Nevada didn’t hide his scorn.
“I vehemently oppose our nominee and some of the comments and issues he brought up during the campaign.""
Good move, Dean.
"Republican Senator Ben Sasse of Nebraska wrote an open letter published late Wednesday where he said there are "dumpster fires in my town more popular" than Trump or Clinton."
The Republican party is a freakin' dumpster fire, Ben.
There are more. This is as divisive as a brokered convention.
Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
More popcorn, Shaw?
Ducky, I just read that Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. will not endorse Trump, and Ryan isn't supporting him now either. Who's supporting him? Mike Tyson and TEd Nugent?
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