Let’s talk immigration.
Why?
Because by all accounts immigration was one of two central issues in the recent 2024 elections, the other being the economy.
Most research puts the number of undocumented immigrants in the US at about 11.5 million people, less than 3.5% of our total population. That is the highest it has been since the early 2000s when the number had risen to over 12.2 million people.
President Trump has promised a mass deportation program, along the lines of “Operation Wetback” launched during the Eisenhower Administration, to alleviate this problem. So let’s take a look at that.
ICE raids have already begun, with a stated goal of arresting up to 1500 undocumented immigrants a day. The Trump Administration has said their focus will first be on criminals, then the everyday non criminal immigrant. However Trump Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt recently classified all people here illegally as criminals, making no distinction between violent offenders, past criminal actions and illegal immigration itself, which is a civil crime.
So let’s deal with the totality of the numbers of people here illegally, undocumented or without papers, as some describe them
A Boeing 737 has a passenger capacity of approximately 150 people. The military transport planes used on a few recent repatriations can safely transport about half that amount. Now let’s add in the Trump Admin deportation goals of 1500 daily repatriations as outlined by ICE leader Tom Homan, Press Secretary Leavitt and President Trump himself.
You see where this is going.
In order to reach the administration, and the MAGA faithful goal of deporting all of the people here illegally, using the administration’s goals of 1500 daily repatriations, it will take 20 years of almost round the clock flights.
According to US Federal budget numbers, the cost of deporting each immigrant is $10,500. This means each flight of 150 repatriated immigrants will cost the US over $1.5 million dollars. This puts puts the daily repatriation cost to Joe Sixpack, the average American at over $15.5 million dollars, or annually $5.5 trillion dollars.
For 20 years!
Which leaves us with one uncomfortable realities.
There is no way the Trump Administration, even without political opposition, can or will deport the over 11 million people here illegally. It’s a logistical nightmare, it costs too much and will wreak havoc within our mostly civil society
This reality means the current efforts of the Trump Admin, the live tweeting from cabinet secretaries, the involvement of “Dr Phil” are all bluster, show or noise.
Sadly however, until the GOP and the MAGA backers realize and accept this, we will never get to the solution large majorities of Americans desire…
A path to legal status for all the immigrants here illegally who have no criminal background or issues. And… a new system at the border and new laws to ensure we never get to this place again.
Only then will the scars of the immigration wars recede.
