Yeah, I don't think so.The last few election cycles have conditioned us to mistrust exit polling. Now Obama adds another dimension. Polling leading up to contests, and exit polling after have tended to exaggerate Obama's share of the electorate. Wins for Hillary will exaggerate the momentum, late deciders, greater than expected margins, and the magnitude of the upsets. Penn. had MSNBC's crew waiting long after polls closed to call the election, siting a mistrust in the exit polling showing Obama doing much-much better than expected. In the end the numbers turned out dead wrong. So leading into today the realclearpolitics averages were:North Carolina: Obama 50% Clinton 42% or Obama +8%Indiana: Obama 44% Clinton 49% or Clinton +5%Vote ! @www.myalteregoblog.blogspot.com
Obama is going to need a lot of luck. As I expected, Rush Limbaugh was going on about Operation Chaos all day. And it seems he's getting coverage about it. Which makes me think, especially in Indiana, there will be a massive shift of Republicans voting for Hillary.It will be an interesting night tonight. I'm just waiting for the Hillary/Rush hug.
James Zogsby said it best today: "The numbers are clear: Clinton cannot surpass Obama's elected delegate total in the contests that remain. It is not unlike a fifty-two lap motor race. In the first forty-three laps, Obama has passed her twice, and built up a lead that is insurmountable. Now, in the midst of the 44th lap, it only appears to be close, but it is not." Zogsby also said: ". .If this campaign were focused on issues and a debate over competing visions of leadership, I would say, "Let it continue." But this has not been the case. Given the [disgusting] behavior of the Clinton campaign to date, and the expectation this behavior will continue, I believe that prolonging this agony will only create deeper division. For this reason, it should end now." And this:MSNBC’s Chuck Todd: Hillary Clinton Can’t WinJump to Comments Tuesday, April 22, 2008MSNBC’s Chuck Todd explains that Hillary Clinton would have to win 70% of the remaining delegates in each remaining state race in order to catch Barack Obama. Todd says even if Obama and Clinton split Indiana and North Carolina on May 6,a Clinton delegate victory is now virtually impossible.Hillary would have to win 69% to 70% of the delegates in every remaining state in order to catch Obama. He then says that if Obama and Clinton split Indiana and North Carolina on May 6, as expected, then she'd need to win 80% of the delegates in every remaining state. Basically impossible.
Elected delegates don't matter, though. It's who can win the votes of the superdelegates. And momentum, especially in the post-J Wright controversy may be enough for Hillary to drag it out to the convention. And don't forget Floriduh and Michigan. You can bet the Clintons will use them, right or wrong, as a weapon.But all that's for you Democrats to decide. I'm just here to watch the carnage. And laugh. And wish McCain had gone Democrat. And then cry.
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