Paul Revere by Cyrus Dallin, North End, Boston





Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Florida: 28% of Registered Republicans Have Voted For Hillary Clinton In Early Voting


 As...reported [last night] on the Lawrence O’Donnell show, a College of William & Mary-TargetSmart poll, which will be released in full [Wednesday], shows Hillary Clinton has an 8 point lead in Florida. 

Interestingly, according to this poll, 28% of registered Republicans have voted for Hillary. Trump in contrast, is winning only 6% of registered Democrats. 

There is about an equal number of Democrats to Republicans who have voted but it is the crossover Republicans that are giving Hillary the wide lead. 

 Florida is a make or break state for Trump. It is impossible for him to win without Florida.

Tue Nov 1, 2016 | 6:40pm EDT

Moody's Analytics election model predicts Clinton win

 Low gas prices and President Barack Obama's high approval ratings are key factors that favor Democrat Hillary Clinton winning the White House in next week's election, according to a model from Moody's Analytics that has accurately predicted the last nine U.S. presidential contests. 

Clinton is forecast to pick up 332 Electoral College votes against 206 for Republican Donald Trump, Moody's Analytics predicted on Tuesday in the final update of its model before Election Day on Nov. 8. That would match Obama's margin of victory over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in 2012. 

The Reuters-Ipsos States of the Nation project also predicts a Clinton win, with a 95 percent probability of her winning at least 278 electoral votes. 

A candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes to be elected president. The Moody's Analytics model is based on a combination of state-level economic conditions and political history, and has correctly called the outcome of each presidential election since Republican Ronald Reagan unseated Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980. 

 Rather than focus on the individual candidates in a race, the model instead centers on whether current economic and political conditions favor the incumbent party in the White House. This year those factors point to Clinton becoming the 45th U.S. president.


Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate, Bill Weld, praised Hillary Clinton on Rachel Maddow's show last night and said she is honest and would make a fine president:

From USAToday:

"For Clinton, on the other hand, he had nothing but kind words. This was a clear break with his running mate, Gary Johnson, who has attacked both candidates. 

"I've known her for 40 years. I've worked with her. I know her well, professionally," Weld said. "I know her well personally. I know her to be a person of high moral character, a reliable person and an honest person, however so much Mr. Trump may rant and rave to the contrary. So, I'm happy to say that, and people can make their own choices."


Infidel753 said...

28% of Republicans are sane enough to not want to give a belligerent thug control of 7,200 nuclear weapons? Who'd have thought it?

If that's accurate, it would bear out one suspicion I've had for a while -- that even among a lot of people who say they're voting for Trump, when it gets right down to it and they're ready to vote, they'll think of the implications and just won't be able to do it. That would lead to some pretty massive surprises when all the votes are counted.

Let's hope it's true.

skudrunner said...

-H> is going to win unless democrats are so disgusted they stay home. What is the chance we can have two presidents from the same family be impeached. That would be another firsts for Democrats.
She will start off in a cloud that may last two years or ore if the republicans hold congress. Maybe she can raise obamacare rates another 60% and tax corporations into leaving. That last one won't happen because it is not in the best interest of clinton Inc

Shaw Kenawe said...

skud is particularly whiney today.

Shaw Kenawe said...

Infidel753. Even Republican past presidents are running as far from Trumper as they can. Besides the under-educated white men, there aren't many deplorables left to vote for him.

The under-educated Trump supporters have been infesting my comment moderation for the past week. They are pooping green bricks because Hillary will be their next president, and they have no clue how it all happened. They can't see beyond their noses what the rest of the country and the world sees: An sexually depraved idiot, full of sound and fury but signifying nothing.

Monica A. said...

I tend not to respect people who tell women who have been sexually battered to "get over it", assault their fellow Americans, and refuse to operate in reality. I am under no requirement to respect someone's demented beliefs. That would be political correct and wrong.So I don't respect Trump supporters.

Nate Silver said...

As many know, statistician Nate Silver has a truly winning track record, predicting the 2008 and 2012 presidential races correctly down to the state level, with only one error. FiveThirtyEight offers three different forecast models: NCRM believes the Polls-plus model makes the most sense, compared to the Polls-only model and the Now-cast model.

Right now, the Polls-plus forecast gives Hillary Clinton an 82.6% chance of winning the presidential race – its highest to date – and Donald Trump a 17.4% chance.

The Polls-only forecast, which does not take into account other factors, such as the economy, gives Clinton an even better chance: 86.4%, close to her highest-ever in that model, which was 89.2%.

And the Now-cast forecast, which predicts who would win were the election held today, gives Clinton even better odds: 90.1%. The highest ever for that model was 96.4%.